In this fight for the story in which we are, more than one outlined a smile when hearing the news: Anonymous, the group of hackers recognized for their disturbing masks, had broke into Russian state television and showed footage of the war in Ukraine. The real war, the one that the Kremlin insists on hiding from its fellow citizens.
Since Russia launched its attacks on Ukrainian territory on February 24, Anonymous declared cyber war against the Russian government. By its very nature, it is impossible to know the breadth and effectiveness of such a statement.
As is knowing the real scope of the cyberattacks that come from Russia itself. Since January, Ukraine has been subjected to a significant number of hacks – it could be as many as 70, including government websites, such as those of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Education – but none of “catastrophic” proportions. The most pessimistic forecasts predicted that the war conflict would be accompanied by a cyber conflict of equivalent magnitude; not surprising, in the case of an attacking country with the reputation of having the largest number of hackers in the world. And yet the much-evoked ‘cyber Pearl Harbor’ has yet to happen.
In recent days many analysts try to understand why. One of the most qualified is the Estonian Heli Tirmaa-Klaar, director of the Digital Society Institute in Berlin, who has been in charge of, among other things, the coordination of cybersecurity policy in the European External Action Service. At the War and Peace seminar, recently organized by CIDOB, Tirmaa-Klaar outlined some of the reasons that could be behind this cyber ‘containment’.
It could be that the coordination of the Russian conventional army with the technological ‘army’ is not as good as it tends to be believed. A quite plausible argument, seeing how we are seeing that Russia’s all-powerful military system is not so powerful. It could be that Ukraine – which also has good cyber capabilities – and Western countries have expanded and improved their defense systems in recent years and, above all, in recent months. But it could be, and this is the main conclusion of the expert, that since they intend to invade the country and are destroying all kinds of Ukrainian infrastructure, they do not need to do it with the technological ones at the same time. This does not mean that they will not do so in the future or that they will not target the countries that are imposing economic sanctions on them.
Another interesting argument is that of the cyber deterrence: The disruptive potential of a massive attack is so enormous, and unknown, that nobody wants to take the first step in launching a large-scale attack. It would be the equivalent, in modern times, to the nuclear factor during the cold war.
A front that is also waged on the networks and in which Russia has traditionally stood out is that of the disinformation. And there, again, the impact is not as expected. Yes it is working inside. With a propaganda machine at the service of the Kremlin’s lies and the prohibition by law of any information that contradicts the official version, orA part of Russian society lives immersed in denial of the war and its tremendous consequences. A recent report by ‘The New York Times’ collected the dramatic testimony of Ukrainians whose relatives in Russia rejected the reality of the bombings and the siege. To this would be added the project of total disconnection from the Internet and the creation of its own isolated network, which the Russian authorities have been preparing for a long time; another action that would end up taking the country to past times.
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For now, however, Russian disinformation, which has been so destabilizing in the West on other occasions, is not managing to cross its borders. The shutdown of some of its main weapons – RT, Sputnik – has contributed to this. On social networks, it seems that the armies of ‘trolls’ that usually operate have either been neutralized or are on to something else. And the battle of the story is being won, without a doubt, by President Zelensky and his epic of resistance.
None of this can lead to complacency. We know that Russia is ready to use everything in its power in this flight to who knows where.