Putin must be angry and nervous and he does not lack reasons. The “special military operation & rdquor ;, as he calls the invasion of Ukraine, has met with a lot of resistance and is not the ride he imagined. Russian soldiers are not greeted with flowers and sanctions have forced the Bbolsa to close for several days while the ruble crashes and foreign companies leave the country. Proof of this nervousness is that it imposes a threatening censorship on those who tell what is happening. Thus, in Russia one cannot speak of war or invasion, much less criticize the operation or speak of deaths. The penalties for doing so reach 15 years in prison. and as a result foreign correspondents, unable to report, leave the country. That shows nerves, insecurity and weakness.
What can happen from now? Several scenarios occur to me. all bad.
The first is that Russia deploy more military forces until victory is achieved. Several possibilities open up here, such as the installation of a puppet and submissive government in Kiev, the occupation of the country, its dismemberment, or reaching the extreme of erasing Ukraine from the map as Putin has already pointed out, pointing out that it would be President Zelensky’s fault for not giving up on time. In this case, Russia, buoyed by success, could threaten Georgia or Moldova (or Sweden and Finland), which are not NATO countries either, although what he really longs for is the port of Riga, in Latvia. The legitimate government of Ukraine would move abroad.
The second scenario goes through the surrender of the Ukraine, massacred by Russian weapons. Russia would withdraw in exchange for a pro-Russian government in Kiev that would agree to turn Ukraine into a neutral, demilitarized country and accept the loss of Crimea, already annexed by Russia, and “the republics of Lugansk and Donetsk & rdquor ;, which would become independent or they would also be annexed. Furthermore, he would renounce joining NATO and the EU. This scenario has the drawback that the Ukrainians are not up to the job.
The third scenario is let the war bog down because international aid prolongs a resistance that inflicts more casualties on the invading army every day, while economic sanctions hinder their military operations and damage the pockets of isolated Russians who feel surrounded. Putin could then use a tactical nuclear weapon quickly end the Ukrainian resistance (there have already been thinly veiled references to that possibility). Another hypothesis could lead him to extend hostilities (military or cyber) to countries that impose sanctions because he considers them “a declaration of war & rdquor ;, while he considers that giving weapons to Ukraine is an “act of war & rdquor; that would produce those who send them “consequences never before experienced in its history & rdquor ;. Those decisions could lead to a larger conflict sparking World War III, and just writing about it is nerve-wracking.
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The fourth scenario is a conflict so protracted that it destroys the Russian economy and damage ours a lot, as we already see with the stock market crash, galloping inflation or the price of gas and gasoline. The Russians, isolated and cooking in their own sauce, could respond in two ways: by increasing support for Putin in an outburst of nationalism to add fuel to the fire, because they believe what their television says, as most do today, or getting rid of it if one day they stop believing it. That is something only they can do. For our part, it can a time when we can’t take it anymore the terrible scenes of the tragedy, the reception of millions of refugees and the economic consequences that the invasion has for us, and we demand an international intervention that ends the war or Putin. Or with both at the same time. Could be Another way to start World War III.
You don’t have to be alarmist but you don’t have to be naive either. The war that Putin has started is extraordinarily serious and all the outcomes of it are bad. Therefore we must support the diplomatic efforts made by Chinese, Israelis, Turks… whoever, to put an end to this insane invasion. Because the risks are too high and the danger is very serious. For all.