With the United States and its allies of the OTAN looking for more negotiations to avoid Russia invading Ukraine, many were apprehensive about invoking Hitler’s apocalypse in 1938. But if they correct the lessons of this episode, there is no other violent conflict ser inevitable.

PRINCETON The Free War ended 30 years ago. However, since the financial crisis of 2007-2008, it has only regressed, but has been embroiled in a hybrid war. Now that the United States and its European allies are ready to launch a Russian offensive in Ukraine, the prospect of a major war is on the horizon.

The apocalypse of 1938 of the Nazi Germany has been transformed into an attractive historical analogy, which is currently the free post-World War I mutually mutually decisive, even if a client conflict results inevitably.

Munich is always associated with this moment, because it is allied between Great Britain, France and Italy and Germany is a territorial territory in Czechoslovakia without consulting the Czechs or the Soviet Union. This episode has been revisited several times, most recently in the brilliant film Munich: The Edge of War (Múnich en vísperas de una guerra) by Christian Schwochow, based on the interesting intention of the novelist Robert Harris to rehabilitate the reputation of the British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain.

Now that the Biden administration has gone out of its way to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a week of failed bankruptcy proceedings, we are witnessing a rehearsal of Chamberlain’s evacuees in Munich?

De Múnich surgió un dictado simple: nunca apacigües a los dictadores. Since 1945, there are many derivatives of disastrous consequences. In 1956, for example, British Prime Minister Anthony Eden (who had served as Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs in 1938, just months before Munich) was equated with the Egyptian president Gamal Nasser as a new Hitler. Decades later, North American presidents George HW Bush and George W. Bush equated to apply the same rotten to Saddam Hussein. The analogy justifies a catastrophic error that has profoundly altered the form of world politics.

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Putin’s doubts that Putin’s a distraction from the way he’s logged many of his goals. Has been destabilized in Ukraine and has been forced to serve as a model for the opposition to its authoritarian regime. It has provoked division between Europe and the United States, has drawn a crude and humiliating stance on the inability of the United States to respond to Russian initiatives and, to a greater extent, has demonstrated the divisions within Europe.

In the past, Vladimir Putin’s response to Ukraine’s series of economic sanctions and large-scale financial impositions by the United States and its allies on the OTAN, which appoints only Putin and his successors, has also affected the economy. For example, the Russian banks are prohibited from using the SWIFT International Compensation Compensation System.

Peru Russia has systematically increased its reserves and reduced its financial vulnerabilities, which means that access to SWIFT will not be seriously affected by the shortfall (although this will certainly cause a great deal of damage to the large area). However, SWIFT can be used as an army to have many implications, such as intermediaries for the United States and its European allies.

A huge obvio is if the accreditors of repente no pueden cobrar. A cascade of insolvencies could turn into a financial crisis and a collusion of international credit.

This scenario does not take place since 1938, since 2008, when the above-mentioned mortgages on high-risk mortgages could lead to an overtime much more so if important financial institutions are affected. The result was a massive sale and a generalized panic.

Hoy, the growing season is increasing due to new factors, such as the rise of digital currencies and the payment systems and militarization of energy commercialization. Will energy imports to Europe really be an effective retaliation? Some European countries -principely Germany- consider that a sanction of this type would be a mayor for those who are different from the Russians.

The current menu of possible financial and economic sanctions on Russia repeats the logic of the Free Guaranteed Mutual Destruction (MAD). The ability to systematically distribute financial and monetary instruments is the modern equivalent of nuclear weapons. (The Chamberlain impulsive had a similar logic: only a generation of horror of the First World War, was compromised to impede a mayoral escalation).

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How is the speed of the MAD evacuation? The Kremlin’s strategists seem to believe that Russia has much to lose with an open conflict in Ukraine. A Russian invasion resembles a sustainable Ukrainian resistance, which results in an enormous amount of baits and a major demoralization of the Russian population. Maintain the control series difficult. The soldiers of the Occupied Forces were reprimanded for a civilian occupation that could be carried out on their own property. Vale la pena record that the first Soviet soldiers in Prague in 1968 had to retire, because comenzaban empathized with the Czechs.

The options are limited to all parties and both charges are reduced. Munich’s second lesson is that there are ways to deal with the political psychology of atrapamiento. Hitler won the battle in Munich, because he had an incomparable dominion over Europe of this and central. But the next one is frustrated, because of the opportunities that the offender has to deal with a conflict that has disappeared. As Henry Kissinger convincingly demonstrated in Diplomacy, Hitler’s irrationality led him to desperately seek his war in 1939.

A violent war is inevitable in a Munich-style negotiation process. If it is true that the aggressor has a great deal more to do, there is much to be said for the interpretation.

If Putin’s goal is to expose the dumbidades of the West, he can claim an immediate victory. Per view from another perspective, the peace and quiet of democracy is also prevalent, because the new logic of destruction must be assured to demonstrate what it has to do with an escalation of conflict.

The author

Professor of History and International Auxiliaries at Princeton University, author of The War of Words: A Glossary of Globalization.


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