Trump Coup Lives On: Lessons from the Ohio Republican Primary

JD Vance has shown that the “Trump coup” is still important to the Republican base.

The peasant elegy The author is now the GOP’s newest candidate for US Senate, as he faces Ohio Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan for the seat held by retiring Sen. Rob Portman this fall. . And Vance owes it all to Donald Trump, the man whose endorsement saved his campaign (even if it meant getting Vance’s name wrong, calling him “JD Mandel,” at a rally in Nebraska).

The race is a gold mine for political analysts and commentators. Just two months ago, Mr. Vance languished closer to the rear of the primary field, in fourth place as his campaign struggled to gain traction in the Buckeye state. A few weeks later, he was standing next to the former president at a rally in Delaware, Ohio, shaking hands with the former star of The newbie and basking in Trump’s glow as his poll numbers skyrocketed and he edged out other candidates to soon include his main rival, Josh Mandel, who had campaigned strongly for the MAGA loyalist vote.

It’s a sign that, above all else, Donald Trump’s endorsement is the most powerful force in a Republican primary election, even after the 45th president has left office and returned to his Mar-a-Mar resort. Lake to appear in court as he faces civil and criminal investigations from New York State and potentially the January 6 investigation.

There is no guarantee that Vance will win a general election even with Trump’s approval; Ohio still has a Democratic senator and his opponent, Tim Ryan, released a poll Tuesday that showed him slightly ahead of his Republican rival. But the victory of an author with no experience in politics or government over contenders like Mandel, a former state treasurer and member of the state legislature, would be shocking were it not for the obvious explanation that Trump can win over even an inexperienced candidate with a campaign of flag to the finish line in a Republican-only race.

Vance now faces a daunting test in November. He is up against one of the best-known Democratic members of the state House of Representatives, whose profile has grown locally and nationally with his challenges to Nancy Pelosi (a boon to him in increasingly conservative Ohio) and his brief running for president in 2020. Ryan comfortably won his primary Tuesday against Morgan Harper, a progressive whose only government experience was an advisory role at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The race in Ohio is doubly important for Republicans, because it doesn’t present an opportunity for the party to win a seat from Democrats, but it does give White House allies a very real opportunity to further cement their 50-50 majority. or protect from the effects of losing a starter’s career in another state.

All of his Republican rivals have turned their wagons and endorsed him following the conclusion of the race Tuesday night, but the real test for Vance remains: running for the first time in a general election campaign for a seat in the US Senate exhibit.

For that reason, arguably the real winner of Tuesday’s primary election was not Vance himself, but rather the former president, who hundreds of miles away in Florida rests comfortably in the knowledge that his control over Republican electorates in some of the countries Politically most important states in the union are holding their ground.