Three ways the EU could retaliate if the UK leaves the Northern Ireland protocol

The EU could impose tariffs on UK fish and farm products in just seven days if Boris Johnson goes ahead with moves to waive parts of Northern Ireland’s Brexit protocol, legal experts have said.

The short sharp impact is one of the three key retaliatory weapons available through the trade dealaccording to Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge.

1. The nuclear option: ending the trade and cooperation agreement (TCA) using articles 770 and 779

These clauses allow the EU to terminate the entire trade agreement, which means the end of duty-free trade in both directions along with all other elements of the agreement, including the 90-day visa-free vacation and the fishing agreement.

It would essentially return the UK to a no-deal Brexit scenario, with damaging consequences including the suspension of police and security cooperation, a serious move with long-term consequences for EU-UK relations.

As this requires a year’s notice, it may not appeal to member states who want to prove they have real teeth in the face of what they see as bad faith on the part of the UK.

2. Option to touch the button with the finger – article 521

This would allow the EU to suspend the trade parts of the ATT, leaving intact all other areas agreed to last December, including visa-free holidays and police cooperation.

Again, this option may not be attractive to Member States as it would not meet the practical objectives of showing that the EU has teeth.

“I find it unlikely that they will do this because, frankly, if things have gotten so bad that the EU is talking about terminating part of the treaty, it seems unlikely that they will continue to cooperate in the other areas,” says Barnard.

3. Trade war in a week – article 506, paragraph 2

This allows the EU to “suspend, in whole or in part”, access to its waters.

Such a response may have nothing to do with Northern Ireland, but Barnard says: “The advantage from the EU point of view is that you only have to give seven days’ notice”, so it could start a trade war in one week.

Additionally, Section 506 allows for broader retaliation if deemed necessary. If the EU considers that a suspension of fishing around the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man is “proportionate to the economic or social impact of the UK’s alleged non-compliance” with the threat, it can suspend duty-free trade “in whole or in partially”. partly”.

In other words, it could impose tariffs on fish and other products in seven days.

But is it an either/or situation?

The treaty that governs current trade arrangements, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, gives considerable powers to either party to terminate the relationship. Barnard says: “They [the EU] I could do them all at the same time, but they are more likely to try to scale things.”

That the EU is considering pushing the button on either option just 18 months after the UK left the bloc with a trade deal is remarkable in the history of trade disputes.

“If you look at the World Trade Organization, the number of disputes between states is relatively small,” says Barnard. “The whole purpose of dispute resolution mechanisms is to settle arguments, and that’s why you have those provisions in the withdrawal agreement and the TCA. But instead of talking about resolution, we’re talking about escalating the arguments to the point of rescinding the treaty. It’s extraordinary.