This oscillating economy

Although October brought us certain hopes of recovery, based on sustained growth indicators, this past November may mean the beginning of a worrying slowdown cycle. This can be seen by observing the comparative progress of the Gross Domestic Product in relation to the previous month of October. November comes to mean a brake where it only grows by 0.5% as reported by Inegi in preliminary data from the most recent Economic Activity Indicator.

In this scenario, the pernicious absence of sufficient investment continues to stand out, as well as various factors that may extend into the first quarter of 2022, with a notorious impact on growth forecasts that, from government sources, are estimated at 4% for the year. next year. Let us clarify, it is not that there was a notorious breaking point in the past month, but it is true that, if we go into some indicators, trends can be marked that hardly find a reversal in a short time. And all this in the short passage of just 30 days where indicators such as manufacturing, domestic sales of automobiles, the export price of oil, the number of workers affiliated with the Mexican Social Security Institute, among others, show more modest numerical advances. than those found in the trend of the previous eight months.

With these signals it may be well worth taking certain measures. For example, there are income forecasts based on extremely challenging tax targets. With a deteriorating income level and an inflationary indicator that tends to set up on the rise, the level of taxpayer compliance can be affected to the point of insolvency. On the other hand, the global reactivation, also oscillating in short periods of pause and acceleration, is putting pressure on international fuel prices, which are in high demand in bloody winters such as the one that may be looming. There, gasoline and imported gas could represent an additional risk for which we are not preparing.

An additional issue that would seriously damage the already deteriorated finances of the national company Petróleos Mexicanos; is the possible disparity between the estimate and the real exchange rate. According to international analysts, it is very possible that the price of the dollar will see an upward pressure for the first quarter of next year, as a result of which the foreign debt of Pemex, CFE and the federal government in general would skyrocket. It has not been clear if there are forecasts that, through the contracting of hedges, could temper a possible unforeseen event caused by world conditions in this matter.

Despite the fact that the information provided by Inegi is not chaotic, the continued fall in manufacturing data, foreign trade, professional and technical services, does represent a serious impact. To take precautions, that 2022 is already coming.

Twitter: @gdeloya

Guillermo Deloya Cobián

Policy analyst

Mid week

Guillermo Deloya Cobián is a native of Puebla, with a law degree, specializing in tax law, a master in economics and government, and a doctorate in strategic planning and development policies. He is currently pursuing a master’s degree in creative writing at the University of Salamanca.

He is a columnist and commentator in various national and local media, has published eight books, as well as various essays on topics ranging from economic, political and legal, to a historical novel set in the 18th century.

He is a commentator and analyst on political, economic and legal issues at ADN40.

He has developed a constant teaching activity as a university professor both in Puebla and in CDMX.

He has 28 years of experience in the public sector where he has held positions at the federal and state levels, in the Attorney General’s Office of Mexico City, in the Attorney General’s Office, in the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit. , in the Council of the Federal Judiciary and the Government of the State of Puebla, he was Coordinator of the National Institute for Federalism and Municipal Development, INAFED, of the Ministry of the Interior and has held various partisan positions.



Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx

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