As the Maple Leafs look to end 55 years of Stanley Cup futility, not to mention 18 years without even winning a round, at least they get a new opponent.
It just happens to be the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning.
“If you’re going to push through the obstacle that we need to get through, you might as well start with the best. These are the champs,” said Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe. “We have great respect for Tampa Bay. They’re the class of the league. They’ve come from that. They’ve earned that.
“But any time that we’ve been challenged as a hockey team, we’ve responded really well. There’s no doubt our team will be ready for them.”
It will be the first meeting in the playoffs between the two teams, best known for their stars like Auston Matthews, Steve Stamkos, Mitch Marner and Nikita Kucherov.
But the playoffs are about more than scoring and skilled play.
Things typically get tough. And that doesn’t bother Keefe.
“We believe we can compete with anybody, we believe we can find our way through any situation and we can play the game any way you want to play it,” said Keefe. “They’re a team that’s going to be very physical. When I look at their playoffs, especially in the first round last year, they definitely led the league in skirmishes after the whistle.
“I expect it to be a very physical, borderline violent series in a lot of ways, and our guys will be ready for that.”
The addition of Ilya Lyubushkin on the blue line, the return to health of Jake Muzzin help the Leafs in that regard. Keefe is leaning to play both Kyle Clifford and Wayne Simmonds to match Tampa’s brawn in the likes of Pat Maroon, Corey Perry, Eric Cernak and, of course, Victor Hedman. And the last time the two teams met, five misconducts and 114 penalty minutes were handed out.
“We’ve been through all the wars,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said. “Just rewind the tape to last year at this time. We played Florida. It was like two cars going 100 miles an hour right at each other. And it was who’s going to flinch first.
“But the first round is always chaos. The guys are pumped up, everybody’s jacked. Usually both teams are somewhat healthy. And whatever that extra five or 10 per cent you have inside you, you get in the playoffs.”
On the injury front, the Maple Leafs look to get Ondrej Kaše back for Game 1, with Michael Bunting (lower body) and Rasmus Sandin (knee) likely returning to health before the first round is over. The Lightning are at full strength.
season-series
leaves 2-2-0, four points. Lightning 2-1-1, five points. But does it matter? In the past 10 years, the team that has won the season series has a 65-46 series record when facing the same opponent in the playoffs.
The Leafs did better against the 16 non-playoff teams (31-11-2, .727) than the 15 other playoff teams (23-10-5, .671). But those are good records. Playoff teams were the Lightning’s kryptonite. They went 18-16-6 (.525) against teams that are still playing.
forwards
leaves None of what Auston Matthews or Mitch Marner achieved personally this season will matter if they fail to lead the team in the first round. Marner hasn’t scored in the playoffs since 2018-19. Matthews had one goal last year against Montreal. Captain John Tavares missed all but a couple of shifts last year and has the ability to be a game-breaker. William Nylander was the Leafs’ best playoff performer last year. Secondary scoring from Ilya Mikheyev, Pierre Engvall and Bunting will be crucial, will David Kämpf’s ability to defend.
Lightning Steve Stamkos finished the regular season strong, with 33 points in the final 16 games, finishing with a career-best 106 points. Injuries limited the likes of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, but they’re healthy now. Tampa had six players hit the 20-goal marker, including fourth-liner Ross Colton. Trade-deadline pickups Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul bolstered their depth.
Edge Leafs, but not by much. The Leafs cored 315 times in the regular season, second best in the league, and their expected-goals metric — based on the number and quality of chances at even strength — outstripped Tampa’s 190.75 to 171.08, according to naturalstattrick.com. Tampa, however, outscored Toronto 16-10 in four head-to-head games.
Defense
leaves This is the best group of defensemen the Leafs have had in the six years they’ve made the playoffs. Morgan Rielly plays like a true No. 1. Mark Giordano and Lyubushkin have made it so they can weather an injury, which always seems to happen to Muzzin. Rookie Timothy Liljegren needs to find his playoff jogging. TJ Brodie is as steady as they come. Justin Holl has put his early season hijinx to bed. Sandin should be over his knee injury. Two regulars, probably Holl and Sandin, will be Black Aces.
Lightning Hedman has been the best defenseman of the last decade and the supporting cast on the blue line is elite. Ryan McDonagh is a rugged blueliner who protects the net. The other defensemen share qualities of both: Mikhail Sergachev on the offensive side, and Cal Foote, Jan Rutta and Zach Bogosian, who can shut you down.
Edge Lightning, but the Leafs have closed the gap.
goaltending
leaves It will be Jack Campbell — presumably the all-star version, not the rib-injury-hobbled one of mid-season — who will carry the load. He had his first 30-win season, and maybe that injury helped him catch his breath to prepare for the playoffs. He went 7-0-2 in April, with a respectable .915 save percentage. He was 2-1-0, .918 against Tampa this year. Erik Källgren is the backup and, with all the other goalies hurt, Michael Hutchinson is third on the depth chart.
Lightning Andrei Vasilevskiy has played every minute of the Lightning’s two Stanley Cup runs, winning the Conn Smythe last year. The only blip on his record has come lately, a pedestrian 5-4-1 mark in April with a .904 save percentage. Brian Elliott is the backup, but history suggests the Lightning won’t need him.
Edge Lightning, though Campbell kept pace with Carey Price last year.
special teams
leaves Can an assistant coach win the Jack Adams? Spencer Carbery turned a moribund power play into the best this franchise has seen, operating at a league-best 27.3 per cent. It was hopeless against Montreal last spring. The penalty kill has been fairly good all year, eighth in the league at 81.2 per cent. And the Leafs also scored a league-leading 13 short-handed goals.
Lightning Tampa’s penalty killers were 11th at 80.6 per cent, and the Lightning’s 901 penalty minutes were second most in the league. Their power play was eight at 23.9 per cent.
Edge Leafs.
coaching
leaves Keefe is a tactician whose biggest flaw may be overthinking situations. He’s a number’s guy who trusts that, if his team is creating scoring chances while limiting chances against, then the wins will outnumber the losses. He’s been less afraid to mix up his lines from him this year.
Lightning Cooper is the longest-tenured coach in the NHL, and a two-time champion who was supposed to coach Canada’s Olympic team until the Omicron outbreak that ended dream. He’s well acquainted with the Leafs top players. He, too, is a thinking-man’s coach. And he’s had more time to think.
Edge Lightning. Experience matters.
X-factor
leaves Giordano. Oh Simmonds. Or Jason Spezza. The Leafs have three players with more than 1,000 regular-season games to their credit, each trying to raise the Stanley Cup for the first time. Maybe they find an extra gear. Maybe their teammates use them as motivation.
Lightning Pat Maroon. He’s going for his fourth straight Stanley Cup, having won in St. Louis in 2019 and Tampa the last two years. He’s a physical presence who unfailingly rises to the challenge.
Edge Leafs. For Vintage.
series prediction
Lightning in seven. Goal tending. It always comes down to goaltending.
JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Anyone can read Conversations, but to contribute, you should be a registered Torstar account holder. If you do not yet have a Torstar account, you can create one now (it is free)