The economies of Latin America will have positive economic activity, although it will be less dynamic than that observed this year, estimate the World Bank and the market consensus obtained by FocusEconomics.
In the latest report from the consultancy for this year, released in the first half of December, they warn that “a significant slowdown is coming as a result of a less favorable comparison base as well as a moderation in internal and external demand.”
They also explain that, even making progress in vaccination, the economic recovery will continue to be subject to the evolution of the pandemic and the consistent reopening of productive sectors.
In Latin America, the market consensus obtained by FocusEconomics is of an arithmetic rebound of 6.5% in GDP for this year after experiencing a contraction in 2020 of 6.6 percent.
The arithmetic effect will be much more moderate for next year. The market consensus gathered by FocusEconomics foresees that the regional economy will register a GDP of 2.5% for next year.
In addition, the World Bank representative for Mexico and Colombia, Mark R. Thomas, explained in a videoblog that the moderation in the regional economic recovery will also be the result of “the scars left by the pandemic in a labor market that has not finished recovering. the previous levels, especially in the segment of working women ”.
For the World Bank official, the progress that will maintain vaccination, particularly the reinforcements, will boost economic recovery by facilitating the opening of productive sectors.
He highlighted the case of Mexico, which, he trusts, will take advantage of the opportunity to integrate into global supply chains.
The expert omitted to give an estimate of Mexico’s GDP for the coming year. However, the market consensus gathered by FocusEconomics anticipates an advance of 2.9%, which contrasts with the 5.8% reached this year.
It also did not offer a forecast for Colombian GDP, but the consultancy estimates that it will achieve growth of 4.1% in 2022, which, although it contrasts with 8.6% this year, will be one of the most dynamic of the 11 that FocusEconomics reviews.