The Turkish engine’s opposition is ahead of Erdogan’s low popularity

  • The Turkish president has promised to be the most valued politician in Turkey and will soon occupy the quarter, by leaps and bounds of other parties

  • The main opposition force, the CHP, has been wary of its candidate, but the miracles will take place in the strongholds of Istanbul and Ankara.

When Ekrem Imamoglu is happy with the alcaldía de Estambul in 2019, the Government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan promise to make the life impossible. The Turkish president, who empressed his political career in the decade of the 90th exactly governing the mayor ciudad turkish, nego la palabra y los fondos a Imamoglu. The mandate converts to alcalde in the lens of its iras.

Three years later, the price went up. For the first time since Goberna -Erdogan went to power in 2003-, el jefe del Estado turco lose the elections si tuviesen lugar ahora mismo, según indican todas las encuestas. And aún más: ya no es el líder mejor meor de pais, a pesar de que a lo largo de los años su charisma and style of oratorio he turned into an influential leader whom the political demons imitated.

Tampoco occupies the second place, sino the quarter, by Imamoglu, the alcalde of Ankara, Mansur Yavasand other political opponents, Meral Aksener. The motive for its fall is the severe economic crisis that plagues the country, with a unblocked inflation and a local currency, the lirawhich will lose the value of its value in 2021.

During the last months, dozens of demonstrations took place throughout the country. The main force of opposition, the Republican Party of the People (CHP in its sails in Turkish) -del que forman parte alcaldes de Estambul y Ankara-, is preparing further protests.

“Supuestamente saldrán a las calles. No tien vergüenza“, Erdogan demonstrated recently.” But when salgan, this nation there will be a lesson as well as the god in those who salieron the las calles July 15“, added the Turkish president, referring to the July 15, 2016 inauguration of the Erdogan.

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The CHP is living a dulce moment and its members appear to have agreed to erdotan Erdogan’s party. The elections are not yours the primavera of 2023pero hay rumors of that podrían adelantarse a otoño de este año.

“Estuve thinking about buying a house, but before the final decision was made, because he did not have much time left in Istanbul. In one year we went all the way to Ankara” team member del alcalde de Estambul. Irse a Ankara, para él, es ir con su jefe al presidential palace.

Pero no todo es tan sencillo. Ante a hypothetical derrota electoral, según write the political scientist Soner Cagaptay, Erdogan tendría varias opciones. “Hay two probable fireplaces. First of all, Erdogan Pierde made the elections, but immediately made sure he had one. fraud claro. Entones, as hizo in Estambul in 2019, search annular the result, as that in Turkey to a crisis without precedents. The second possibility is to try to ‘regulate’ the elections before then, but this, as happened in Istanbul in 2019, has exit opportunities“, dice Cagaptay.

In his comics, the Gobierno forced the electoral rehearsal to lose the great city of Turkey. In the rehearsal, Erdogan’s candidate lost by a much larger margin than in the first round.

All to play

Without embargo, the elections that are not on the horizon are imminent, and the Turkish opposition is divided into adjudicating who will be the one to join Erdogan in what he will do. the most important choices of recent history of the Republic of Turkey.

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“The time will come if the parties to the opposition will be able to overcome their problems and differences and take action. derrotar and Erdogan. Hasta entonces, no obstente, es prematuro ne tener en cuenta la capacidad del presidente de sobrevivir“, explain Berk Esenprofessor de la University of Sabanci. “Pero Erdogan está more search than ever “In his political career he loses the power, especially in a country where those who stand in the power of the power and march through the urns”, added.

Excisions, filtrations and joints

At the moment debilidad of the Turkish president, in addition, was noted within his sons. Have a year ago, no deputy and member of the governing party would like to take the plunge to criticize the politics of the jefe and now, the periodicals of llenos de sources —Anonymous, clear— relating to all types of details of Erdogan’s failures and disconnections, both antecedent and infallible.

But there are only filters: at the end of the year, no party was formed without the division of Erdogan’s party. And the letters of the two, the Future Party y el Remedy Party —They name a clear reference to Erdogan’s party—, fueron en su día pesos pesados ​​en el goberno del presidente turco. One of them, Ahmet Davutogluincluding Erdogan’s number, there are many who believe that he should be the one to replace the president when this decision is taken.

Not only has he been here, but Davutoglu, now, criticizes his former wife and looks to officially officiate at the Turkish opposition coalition. “We are apostates by the union of all the Turks in the work of our common values ​​and the real communication, not in the work of the hypocrisy. Sépanlo: las urnas llegarán. And there are hypocrites who accompany him definitively & rdquor;

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