The Russian army in search of military successes


After failing to make quick gains at the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military is making little progress in the face of still-combatant Ukrainian forces and remains in search of military successes that can be converted into political benefits, according to experts.

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In the opinion of many Western observers, the Russians failed to enter the war by assuming weak resistance from their adversary and a quick victory, and by neglecting their logistical needs.

“The lack of effectiveness of Russian combat power and the vigor of Ukrainian military resistance are a real surprise”, underline Philippe Gros and Vincent Tourret in a note from the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).

After failing to establish their air superiority in the Ukrainian skies, the Russians have not engaged in a major operation since the beginning of March and are coming up against a vivacious Ukrainian defense, including around the capital, Kyiv. “The Russian invasion is at a standstill on all fronts,” said the British Ministry of Defense on Thursday in a situation report.

If the Russians launched the siege of several cities in the northeast (Sumy, Kharkiv) and southeast (Marioupol) and cut off their supplies, the battle of Kyiv has not begun, despite the regular bombardments which target the capital. The Russian army has not completed its encirclement maneuver.

And the capture of this city of 2.8 million inhabitants “would probably require a volume of forces of 150 to 200,000 men”, estimate the experts of the FRS, recalling the need for an overwhelming balance of power to fight in urban environment, where the advantage is always with the defender.

However, despite the difficulties encountered on the ground, “Russian military superiority is not in question,” said a Western military source. “The operational pause that we are observing allows the Russian forces to regenerate, mobilize reinforcements to relaunch, begin a second phase”.

According to the Pentagon, all of the 150,000 Russian soldiers mobilized for this conflict are engaged in the Ukrainian theater. And the losses are heavy. According to US intelligence estimates quoted by the New York Times, Moscow lost 7,000 men in three weeks, which represents more than 300 battlefield deaths per day.

If these figures are to be handled with care, the fact remains that the Russian army, engaged since February 24, needs to regenerate to last. In search of new blood, Moscow, which has promised its population not to resort to conscripts, is mobilizing its reservists and has recently launched a recruitment campaign among Syrians.

“Russian generals are running out of ammunition and troops. According to the Pentagon, 50% of Russian combat capabilities are engaged in Ukraine. At the peak of our engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US military was 29% engaged, and it was very difficult to maintain,” said retired US General Ben Hodges of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA ) in Washington.

Thus, “the next 10 days will be decisive”, he judges, calling on the West to “accelerate and intensify the support we are providing to Ukraine”.

In this context, what are the most probable tactical hypotheses on the Russian side in the coming weeks?

According to the French military historian Michel Goya, “two possible short-term points of unblocking: facing Mariupol and facing the Ukrainian army of Donbass”.

According to the French general staff, the Russians could also try to encircle the 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers deployed on the eastern front in a pocket, by taking the city of Dnipro, which constitutes “a strategic crossing point between the west and the east” and where “one senses a converging movement of Russian troops”. “This would cut the Ukrainian army in two, it makes real sense at the military level” or “to cause its collapse, or to be in a position of strength in the negotiations”, argues Colonel Pascal Ianni.

The other hypothesis concerns Mariupol. The strategic port city on the Sea of ​​Azov has been besieged and shelled relentlessly for more than two weeks. Despite the evacuation of 20,000 civilians earlier this week, some 300,000 people are still trapped, without electricity and running water.

Taking control of Mariupol would allow the Russians to establish geographical continuity between the pro-Russian separatist territories of Donbass and the Crimean peninsula, annexed in 2014.

The Ukrainian forces are also suffering losses but have so far managed to inflict significant material and human losses on the Russians, in particular thanks to an efficient anti-aircraft defense.

President Zelensky’s army also benefits from a large supply of anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft missiles from several NATO countries.

In this context, it is crucial for the Ukrainian army to preserve its supply routes from the West. But Moscow has launched three strikes in recent days in western Ukraine, hitherto relatively spared. One of these strikes targeted the Yaroviv military base, 20 km from the Polish border, where some of the equipment donated by Westerners to Ukrainian forces transits.



Reference-www.tvanouvelles.ca

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