The recovery of the precovid level in 2022, endangered by inflation and lack of supplies

The economic growth still robust, but with risks. The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce alert that the entrenchment of inflation and lack of supplies does jeopardize the recovery of precovid levels next year in Catalonia.

For now, the cameral body estimates a growth in gross domestic product (GDP) this year and next two tenths lower to that initially calculated in July, with the 6.1% and 6.5%, respectively. With these rates of increase, the precovid level could be recovered next year.

But all this will depend on the persistence of inflation and the lack of supplies. If these risks persist, “it is quite possible that GDP growth in 2022 will be closer to 5% than 6% and recovery of precovid levels would not be reached until 2023“, highlights the entity. The Chamber estimates that the average inflation will be 2.7% this year and will drop to 2% next year.

In any case, the end of the state of alarm and the control of the delta variant of the coronavirus have allowed the recovery of the Catalan economy to accelerate in the third quarter, largely thanks to domestic tourism.

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That is why companies face the fourth quarter with “positive growth expectations” . In fact, the Catalan GDP could end 2021 3.9% below the pre-crisis level, according to the Catalan Situation Report for the third quarter, made by the AQR-Lab team of the University of Barcelona (UB) and the Chamber of Comerç de Barcelona.

The study highlights the “robust” growth of labor market indicators and business start-ups, “which are getting closer and closer to pre-crisis levels.”

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