The Quebec economy capable of absorbing the shock

Quebec is not a major economic partner of Vladimir Putin’s Russia and should therefore be able to absorb the impact of the conflict, despite certain short-term price fluctuations.

• Read also: LIVE | Developments on the war in Ukraine

• Read also: Global markets rebound, reassured by limited sanctions against Russia

• Read also: The SAQ removes Russian products from its shelves

“There are companies that risk being affected more significantly, but the Quebec economy as a whole is not dependent on its relations with Russia,” summarizes Yan Cimon, professor of strategy at Laval University. . Last year, Quebec imported $888 million worth of products from Russia (21and rank), which has nothing to do with the 34 billion United States dollars (1er rank) or the 14 billion dollars of China (2and rank).

In total, the value of trade in goods between Quebec and Russia represented barely 0.4% of all international trade in 2020, according to the Ministry of Economy and Innovation (MEI).

During the same year, the five most imported products from Russia were petroleum oils, fertilizers, tires, coal and silver.

“Importing companies will have to find new suppliers, but that’s on international markets,” analyzes Arthur Silve, professor of economics at Laval University.

“I don’t think this translates into a shock for Quebec businesses,” he says.

In terms of exports, Russia is not even among the 25 most important export countries for Quebec.

Still, for some medium-high technology firms, flight simulators and turbojets, the effect of the war is likely to be felt at the cost of millions of dollars. At Desjardins, it is estimated that the impact will be felt on energy prices.

“In the United States and Canada, one of the first direct effects visible to the majority of the population should be a further increase in gasoline and energy prices,” its economists pointed out in a recent note.

“Russia is not only one of the largest oil and gas producers in the world, it is also a major supplier of industrial metals such as nickel, aluminum and palladium”, points out for its part. the National Bank.

That said, despite these price fluctuations, our companies should be able to continue their economic exchanges without major shocks.

“During the Cold War, trade between the Western bloc and the Soviet bloc continued almost smoothly. Trade is generally excluded from most sanctions,” observes Silve.

“The sanctions are mainly financial in nature. They target the banks. None of these sanctions for the moment are of a commercial nature”, he concludes.

– With the collaboration of Marie Christine Trottier

Between 2016 and 2020, with the exception of 2017, medium-high technology products dominated Quebec’s exports to Russia, according to the Ministry of Economy and Innovation.

Imports $878 million

Exports $259M

10 main export products

  • 1. Flight simulators $15.7M
  • 2. Turbojet engines $14.4M
  • 3. machinery $7M
  • 4. Airplanes, helicopters $6.6M
  • 5. Faucets $6M
  • 6. Vehicle accessories $4.6M
  • 7. machinery parts $4.2M
  • 8. drilling machine $4.2M
  • 9. brazing machine $3.9M
  • 10. Piston engines $3.6M

10 main import products

  • 1. Petroleum oils $143.3M
  • 2. Fertilizers (nitrogenous) $89.6M
  • 3. Tires $50 million
  • 4. Coal $35.1M
  • 5. Money $27.9M
  • 6. Mineral fertilizers $26.6M
  • 7. Refined copper $21.8M
  • 8. raw aluminum $20.2M
  • 9. plywood $19.3M
  • 10. Rolled products $18.7M

Exports according to the level of technology

  • High technology $32.8M
  • Medium-high technology $81.2M
  • Medium-Low Tech $8.7M
  • low tech $13M

Imports by level of technology

  • High technology $6.4M
  • Medium-high technology $147.9M
  • Medium-Low Tech $318.4 million
  • low tech $31M

(Source: Statistics Quebec, 2021 and Abridged note on Quebec-Russia trade, Quebec Ministry of Economy and Innovation, 2020)

Leave a Comment