Several service stations, including that of the retailer Irving located on the Duplessis highway, in the Sainte-Foy sector, posted a liter of gas at 205.9¢, a record. In the Capitale-Nationale, the previous mark was 199.9 per litre.
According to Statistics Canada, in May 2021, regular unleaded gasoline was selling for an average of 133.8¢ per liter in Quebec. This means that over the past year, the price of fuel has jumped 72.1¢, or 53.88%, in the capital.
Experts attribute recent fuel price hikes mainly to uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine. Before the invasion of Russian troops in February, a liter of regular gasoline averaged 164.5¢. Compared to the sale price of 205.9¢, this represents an increase of 41.4¢, or 25.16%.
Penalties
The vice-president of the Canadian Fuels Association, Carol Montreuil, mentions that the sanctions imposed by Russia, in particular those targeting its energy sector, have had an upward effect on prices.
Since [le début du conflit] it’s been an escalation, week after week, of significant sanctions on the energy side that are putting enormous pressure on all energy systems on the planet and driving up prices. And we see it in all regions of Quebec now
he said in an interview with Radio-Canada.
However, the war in Ukraine alone cannot justify soaring gasoline prices. For the professor at the Department of Economics at Laval University Patrick Gonzalez, this strong upward trend is first and foremost a sign of economic recovery.
The global oil industry, which saw its production decline by 20% at the start of the pandemic, has not yet managed to adjust to demand. The producers, concerned not to develop resources for nothing
waited for the economy to recover for good before returning to their pre-pandemic level of activity, says Professor Gonzalez.
” The root of the problem is really the pandemic. That’s clear. »
The invasion of Ukraine has somewhat slowed down this slow return to balance between supply and demand.
Disrupted catch-up
The price has been slowly rising for 18 months. That’s supply trying to adjust as demand thaws. There you arrive the war in Ukraine with [la Russie] one of the largest oil and gas producers in the world. It had an effect. It shook up that long adjustment that’s been going on
continues Patrick Gonzalez.
Experts are careful not to make predictions about future fluctuations in gas prices in Quebec and elsewhere on the planet. Carol Montreuil argues that two factors will be called a determining role in the coming months: the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine and the health of the economy.
A lull in the war in Europe could lower gasoline prices, while an escalation would have the opposite effect, Montreuil argues.
Towards a drop in demand?
In terms of the economy, a possible slowdown in activity could translate into a reduction in demand and, consequently, in the price of energy.
Between now and next summer, these two variables, that of the conflict and that of the economy, which of the two will prevail? This is what will dictate what prices will be over the next few months in Quebec
insists the vice-president of the Canadian Fuels Association.
For his part, Patrick Gonzalez maintains that the oil industry has no interest in gas prices remaining so high for an extended period.
It means that in the long term, people risk changing the type of car, going faster towards electric cars, which would not benefit their industry.
he explains.
With the collaboration of Pierre-Alexandre Bolduc, Jean-Francois Blanchet and Felix Morrissette-Beaulieu
Reference-ici.radio-canada.ca