The Government cuts this year’s growth forecast to 4.3%

The Spanish economy will grow 4.3% this year and 3.5% in 2023, according to the new official forecasts presented this Friday by the First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Nadia Calvino. The new macroeconomic chart cuts the Executive’s previous forecast for this year by 2.7 points and includes the impact that the war in Ukraine it will have on Spanish activity due to the energy crisis, inflation and the worsening of international trade; In addition, it is aligned with the projections advanced in recent weeks by the Bank of Spain, the Fiscal Authority and the IMF.

In particular, the new forecast for 2022 is in line with that projected by the Tax Authority, at the lower limit of those published so far by the main agencies, “based on the utmost prudence”, in the words of the First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, this Friday, at the press conference to present the new forecasts.

According to the new scenario, which the Government plans to send to the European Comission Between this Friday and Saturday, the unemployment rate will evolve from 14.8% of the active population in 2021, to 12.8% in 2022; 11.7% in 2023 and 10.6% in 2024 and 9.6% in 2025.

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The new macroeconomic projections are part of the update Stability Plan 2022-2025 that all member states must submit to the European Commission before the end of April. These projections are the basis for establishing forecasts for deficit and public debt until 2025 on which the Government must begin to prepare the State Budget for 2023.

After having closed 2021 with a deficit equivalent to 6.76% of GDP in 2021, the forecasts on public accounts presented by the Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, place the forecast for 2022 at 5%. a rate of 3.9% of GDP; by 2024, 3.3%; and 2.9% by 2025, already below the 3% limit established by the excessive deficit procedure in the European Union.

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