The Government estimates that Catalonia will grow this year by 4.9%, above the 4.3% to which the central Executive has lowered its forecast for this year. in 2023, the increase will be 2.9%. The Ministry of Economy has lowered its estimates, which were initially 6.4%, as a result of the war in ukrainea disturbance in supply on a global scale and the consequent impact on the evolution of activity and prices, according to a statement from the Department headed by Jaume Giró.
In any case, the Catalan Executive, in the macroeconomic scenario of Catalonia for the 2022-2023 period, expects that next year, the Catalan economy will reach the level of gross domestic product (GDP) prior to the pandemic, in 2019. According to According to its calculations, the value of GDP this year will be 266,838 million euros, almost 23,000 million more than in Jan 2021. Economy considers that its new forecasts are “consistent with global prospects for recovery that have also been revised downwards”, especially in the euro area.
follow the uncertainty
One of the determining factors of the current situation continues to be the uncertainty, “with downside risks to activity, which could ease as the year progresses.” The data for this financial year collect “the drive both from the internal and external demandthanks the recovery of the household consumption, investment and foreign tourism”according to Economy.
Despite the situation, household consumption, affected by inflation, which reduces purchasing power, will register an increase of 3.9% this year. That will be a slowdown from the 5.2% in 2021 and a bigger push than the 2.5% predicted for 2023.
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Investment, which last year registered a rise of 8.1%, will slow down, but will maintain a good pace, with an expected rate of 4.7%, largely driven by a greater deployment of European funds ‘Next Generation ‘, to gain more momentum in 2023, with 6.8%, according to Govern projections.
The analysis of the Catalan Executive highlights the “solidity of the labor market”, which will allow the unemployment rate to be reduced to 10.4% in 2022 and 9.9% next year, the lowest level since 2009. After a 2021 with the creation of 248,100 jobs, it is expected that in the current year there will be 85,000 and next year, 48,800.