The EU seeks a new leader after the end of the 16-year reign of Angela Merkel

Often much to her regret and due to the absence of the rest of the leaders, the chancellor has led the helm of the EU in all storms: the financial and debt crisis between 2008 and 2012, the refugee crisis or the coronavirus crisis.

For the former president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who shared most of the trip with her, his greatest achievement was opening the borders to Syrian asylum seekers in 2015. “His main failure was the reluctance he showed during the Greek crisis, because due to his doubts and reluctance we lost a long time. Greece could have been helped earlier, “Juncker said in an interview in Euronews in which he takes stock of the chancellor’s career.

This role of leader in spite of herself has cost Merkel a lot of criticism and hatred across the EU. The Greek crisis ended up infecting Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus; and the southern countries blamed the chancellor for austerity policies that those years had to apply. Hungary or Poland also continue to reproach him for “call effect” in the migration crisis and his defense of mandatory refugee quotas, which caused an unprecedented rift between Eastern and Western Europe.

In the end, Merkel’s main achievement may have been keep Europe together (if the Brexit), although was several times on the edge of the abyss. The Chancellor came to confront her almighty Minister of Finance, German politican, which in 2015 wanted to expel Greece from the euro. Even the most remote leaders recognize Merkel’s authority, her ability to listen, her total absence of arrogance, her pragmatism, her infinite patience to negotiate until dawn on eternal heights or her impassive character even in the most tense situations.

“She has supported the process of European integration. In very difficult moments, she has been a certain anchor, a benchmark, and her general balance is quite positive. But at the same time, unlike other previous foreign ministers such as Helmut Kohl, has always defended the interests of Germany, for example in the governance of the euro or in relations with Russia “, tells EL ESPAÑOL Ignacio Molina, principal investigator at the Elcano Royal Institute.

In its European trajectory there have also been of clearly differentiated phases. “The first Merkel is much more distrustful, she does not want to lead, she is much more calculating and cautious. And little by little, starting with the return of the Great Coalition with the Social Democrats in 2013, she begins to turn thanks to a certain learning and also for fear that the euro will break. He realizes that he has to bet more on Europe, and that Germany must show more solidarity, “says Molina.

In his farewell, the chancellor has reached unprecedented heights of popularity across the EU, even in the countries of the East or the South. Something that is largely explained by her latest turnaround: if in 2012 she claimed that there would be no Eurobonds while she was alive, last year she accepted the large-scale issuance of common debt to come to the rescue of Italy and Spain. 41% of Europeans would vote for Merkel as president of the Union, a percentage that rises to 57% among Spaniards, 52% among Portuguese or 44% among Hungarians, according to a poll of the think tank European Council of Foreing Relations.

In contrast, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the most obvious and willing candidate to replace Merkel as EU leader, has much less predicament among European public opinion. Only 9% of the Spanish or 6% of the Dutch would vote for him to lead the EU (14% on average in the EU).

“The chancellor’s departure leaves a leadership vacuum because, like it or not, no one on the European political scene right now can occupy the space occupied by Angela Merkel. None of the current European leaders has the experience or the recognized power that is granted to Merkel, because in the end the power is exercised but it is also granted “, assures this newspaper Carme Colomina, principal investigator of the CIBOD of Barcelona.

“Macron is clearly not a consensus builder like Merkel, it actually generates certain antibodies, for example in some Central and Eastern EU countries. Mario Draghi is not favored by Italian instability and the same could be said of Pedro Sánchez. If we take a historical tour, when has there been a very clear leadership of a single Southern European country? Never, “explains Colomina.

The other possible change in the EU will depend on who wins the German elections. If, as the polls point out, the SPD candidate, Olaf Scholz, triumphs, that “would be a very important blow for the European People’s Party, which loses its greatest exponent and is left out of the large governments of the EU,” says the CIBOD researcher. . And at the same time it would strengthen the social democratic family in Brussels. Both Pedro Sánchez and the vice president Nadia Calvin –even more so, because he has been working with him for 3 years at Ecofin– have already boasted of their close relationship with Scholz.

Regardless of who wins Sunday’s election, Germany will maintain its leading position in the European Union. It is the largest country, the one with the strongest economy and the one with the greatest budget space to combat any crisis. That means the next chancellor will inherit Merkel’s crown with practically nothing to do.

“Who will be the EU leader when Merkel leaves ?: Merkel’s replacement. It may take a little while, as Merkel herself took. Or not. Perhaps, as happened to Macron, he comes to Brussels freshly elected and is already very clear about what he wants. But this is like the yellow jersey, the one who wears it, just by wearing it, is already pedaling harder “, points out Ignacio Molina.

Although in recent years coalitions of Member States lobbying in Brussels have become widespread in the EU (such as the frugales, the Mediterranean countries of the MED9 or the club of Eastern Visegrad), analysts agree that the real power will remain in the hands of the Franco-German axis. “Especially if Merkel’s replacement continues to have Macron as a dance partner in Paris. If Marine Le Pen won the elections next year, there would be nothing to do with France, “says the researcher at the Royal Institute Elcano.

“Even in this EU of flexible alliances, the Franco-German axis, although it no longer has decisive power because it knows that it needs a much broader consensus around it, is still key. And even more so at this time when so much is being said of strategic autonomy, of taking a step forward and rethinking the entire EU foreign and security policy strategy. France is a key country in this regard and therefore, whoever wins, the Franco-German axis will continue to be the heart of European politics “, points out Carme Colomina.

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