War drums sound in Eastern Europe with undertones of credibility. Russia go back to to threaten a Ukraine, the former Soviet republic flanking the West, by moving thousands of troops to the border they share. To this day no one doubts the testament of moscow of Ukraine invasion. But the match played on Ukrainian territory is much more than a local clash. USA and the OTAN, on the Ukrainian side, and Russia, reset a pulse for the world hegemony. Below are a few keys to understanding the extent of the challenge between the former actors of the Cold War.
The decisive NATO summit of 2008
To understand the new episode of the Ukrainian conflict you have to go back to 2008 NATO Summit when it was agreed that Ukraine Y Georgia they would become part of the Atlantic Alliance, without further specification of time. This was the last block meeting he attended Vladimir Putin, 13 years ago in Bucharest. Y George W. Bush he was the American president who insisted on opening the doors of the alliance to the two former Soviet republics. Putin described the proposal as “a direct threat to Russia”. That promise, without a date or road map, is still a buy case for the Russian president.
Diplomatic madness to avoid war
In recent months, Russia deployed 100,000 soldiers on the front what you share Ukraine to the point that its own US President Joe Biden, took Russian intervention for granted, raising fears of NATO allies. The military confrontation is trying to be avoided in high level meetings between Russia, USA and NATO. Experts talk about more frenetic diplomatic activity since the Balkan War. Putin continues to demand that Ukraine not be accepted into NATO, while the organization insists that the promise to include the former republic remain in force. After several meetings at the highest level without excessive encouraging results, the diplomatic madness does not stop with the ultimate goal of avoiding a military confrontation.
The precedent of the annexation of Crimea in 2014
This is not the first time that Russia has threatened its troops in the Ukrainian border. The most recent precedent and the most serious consequences have been in 2014 when Russia invaded disputed Crimean peninsula after the pro-Russian Ukrainian president was ousted. In addition, Ukrainian separatists from the Donbas region, backed by Moscow, seized large areas of eastern Ukraine. The rebels have since fought against the Ukrainian army in a conflict that claimed more than 14,000 lives.
President Biden threatened Russian leader with measures “like you’ve never seen before” if Ukraine is attacked. In addition to the military flank, the US is considering the economic coercion. For example, the decoupling of the Russian banking system from the international Swift payment system. Another important threat is to prevent the opening of the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 in Germany, whose approval is decided by the German energy regulator. There may also be measures targeting the Russian sovereign wealth fund RDIF or restrictions on banks converting rubles into foreign currency.
Putin calls on NATO to return to pre-1997 borders
Actually, Russia want the OTAN go back to you for 1997 limits. It asks that there will be no further expansion and it end of NATO’s military activity in Eastern Europe. This would mean the withdrawal of combat units from Pole and the Baltic republics of Estonia, latvia Y Lithuania, and the impossibility of deploying missiles in countries such as Pole Y Romania.