The end of the third way?


Ex post, the PRI members were right: if instead of six, they had extended their electoral alliance with the PAN and the PRD to nine CDMX mayoralties in the 2021 elections, they would have ended Morena’s hegemony, as they did in the Mexico state.

A thorough review of the numbers, and of the negotiations between the leaders of the opposition forces, gives another dimension to the anticipated fight for 2024: last year, Morena defeated Va por México and Movimiento Ciudadano by less than 1,000 votes in 60 of the 300 federal districts. The correlation is inevitable: united, the containment bloc would have achieved the majority in San Lázaro. The composition of the board of directors in the lower house and the 2022 budget would have been diametrically different…

The leadership of the orange party opted to build a third option before the electorate, different from the two blocks (Morena-PT-PVEM and PRI-PAN-PRD) and their victory in Nuevo León —where they obtained the governorship and mayoralty of Monterrey— meant the conquest of another bastion. With political control in two of the five most populated entities in the country (NL and Jalisco) and a triad of presidential candidates (governors Samuel García and Enrique Alfaro, in addition to mayor Luis Donaldo Colosio), the route for 2024 seemed clear. In the face of macroeconomic and political uncertainty, state leaders have tried to convey an image of cohesion and a long-term project between decision-makers and diplomats in recent weeks.

The 2023 elections, however, will be a severe blow to the ambitions of the emecistas. According to the most reliable projections, Morena would win four of the six governorships that will be decided on June 5. And except for Aguascalientes, where the candidacy fell to the PAN member Tere Jiménez, the expectations of victory for the PRI-PAN-PRD coalition are meager.

One of the determining factors will be the intention to vote raised by MC. And the clearest proof is registered in Durango, where Morena is in a technical tie with the coalition. The emecista standard-bearer, Patricia Elizondo, registers 7% of the electoral preferences and if she were to decline for Esteban Villegas she would avoid the victory of Marina Vitela.

Similar levels of vote intention are registered by the emecista candidates in Hidalgo and Tamaulipas, where Morena could sweep, as well as in Oaxaca and Quintana Roo, where the vote against the icing party was pulverized.

The invalidity of the third way would be evidenced at a very high cost: in just two years (2021 and 2022), Morena would have conquered at least half of the governorships.

If MC had agreed to join the Va por México alliance, in addition to Nuevo León, that formation would have conquered Colima, Campeche and Baja California Sur

Within three weeks, the path of a likely containment block by 2024 will be clear, although the balance may be misleading. And it is that the defeats of 2021 and 2022 will be for PRI and Alliance governors.

Side effects

SCANDAL. Among women, the election will be resolved in Aguascalientes. And the candidate of Fuerza por México for the governorship, Natzielly Rodríguez, went to the state prosecutor’s office against the Morenista standard-bearer, Nora Ruvalcaba, whom she accuses of illicit enrichment and tax fraud after revealing that she just released a residence valued at five million pesos, which he built on a property he owned, although the property is registered in the name of his daughter, Fernanda Alférez. The house, built in the La Tomantina subdivision, was called the Villa Blanca by the local press.

Alberto Aguirre

Journalist

Vital signs

Journalist and columnist for El Economista, author of Doña Perpetua: Elba Esther Gordillo’s power and opulence. Elba Esther Gordillo against the SEP.



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