The ‘deviation’ of Tezanos: rises 4.6 points to the PSOE and falls 8.7 to the PP compared to the average of the surveys

Jose Felix Tezanos he is more ‘off track’ than ever. To realize this, it is enough to go to the last survey that the Sociological Research Center (CIS) that he presides has published this Thursday, and that grants the PSOE a 29,6% in voting intention in front of the 20,5% of the PP.

The scenario drawn by its last barometer is very far from that shown by the sample mean. And is that Tezanos would have inflated 4.6 points to the PSOE, 1.6 to United We Can and would have deflated the Popular Party by 8.7 percentage points and 1.6 to Vox.

If, on the average of the national surveys published in recent months, the block of left adds 34.7% (38.8 including More Country in the equation), this would skyrocket to the 40.9% (44.2 with those of Íñigo Errejón) in the calculations of Tezanos, former leader of the Executive of the PSOE. Meanwhile, the right would drop from 44.6% (47.7% counting Citizens) to 34,3% (40.8% adding the liberals). Considerable differences.

Take care, without going any further, to the latest survey made by SocioMétrica for EL ESPAÑOL, published on August 1. This gave the PP as the winner of the next elections with 26.4% -almost six points more than what the CIS grants it- and left behind the Socialists with 24.7% of the support -five less than what awarded Tezanos in his latest survey.

More of the same with the latest barometer Sigma Two (PP, 29.1% and PSOE, 24.4%) or with that of GAD3 (31.1% for Casado and 25.1% for Sánchez), to give two examples. And the fact is that the Tezanos data have come to fight with all the main pollsters in the country, which have been predicting for months (properly, since the overwhelming victory of Isabel Diaz Ayuso in the Madrid elections) a government majority made up of PP and Vox.

A majority that, according to what this newspaper has learned, would be even more consolidated in the private polls that the political parties handle.

Nth controversial

It always rains when it is wet when talking about José Félix Tezanos. To his constant demographic errors since he led the CIS, with polls always favorable to the government party, of which he is a prominent militant, are added his articles positioning themselves politically against the right; with a tone quite remote from the one that is presupposed to a public office.

The last, which generated a special stir, was the one in which he called the voters of Isabel Díaz Ayuso “tabernarios”, to whom he attributed his “little intellectual entity.” This text, published in the magazine Topics, was born in the middle of the Madrid campaign, in the same way that it produced a CIS poll after the legal deadline to publish polls that governs all electoral campaigns expired.

After attacking the Madrid president, Tezanos justified himself before the Constitutional Commission of Congress, claiming that “she herself described herself as a tavern keeper.” And everyone knows, said the president of the CIS, that “a person who considers himself a tavern keeper cannot feel insulted.”

José Félix Tezanos, president of the CIS.

José Félix Tezanos, president of the CIS.

Europa Press

The reality is that in the text published in the magazine Topics -which he directs-, the socialist provost disqualified the voters popular for responding to “sectors of the tabernity”. In this he has shielded himself to defend that he never called the Madrid president a “tabernary” – literally.

But returning to his performance at the head of the public body, it has been so controversial that the Court of Instruction number 29 of Madrid has recently admitted to processing a complaint Presented by Vox against him for an alleged crime of embezzlement of public funds.

The complaint, as reported by Diego Rodríguez Veiga for EL ESPAÑOL, was accompanied by an expert report in which his work is statistically analyzed since he took office. Your balance? A margin of error in your surveys of 3 points when the usual in other studies is 1.5.

For all this, since Tezanos took command of the sociological studies center, trust in the CIS has fallen to a minimum, whether among experts, politicians or even former presidents of the institution. Your latest poll certainly doesn’t look like it’s going to save your reputation.

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