The 8 ‘zascas’ to Sánchez and Casado from the GESOP survey on the general elections


The first survey of general elections The elections in Castilla y León have shown that the Government and the main opposition party have some reasons to be concerned after not coming out of the regional contest very well. The barometer of the Gabinet d’Estudis Socials i Opinió Pública (GESOP) for EL PERIÓDICO and all the media of the Prensa Ibérica group was prepared, from a thousand interviews, from February 14 to 16, that is, the three days following at elections in Castilla y Leónbut just before the schism between Casado and Ayuso.

These are the main ‘zascas’ of the PSOE and PP survey, with graphics included.

30 seats less for the PP

2022 began with a technical tie between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Casado, who sought to boost himself with the Castilla y León springboard. But the Pyrrhic victory left him in a weak situation that has allowed the left to cut ground to the right. Married would keep 20.6% of the votes and 85-88 deputies (today he is 89). In the previous GESOP survey, published in July last year, the PP was then 5.4 points and 30 deputies above your current estimate.

Vox, to 20 deputies of the PP

Propelled by the polls in Castilla y León, Vox would inflict a new electoral bite that would boost it to 18.2% of the votes and 66-69 MPs (today he is 52). Three out of four voters in Santiago Abascal in 2019 they would choose the same ballot today, thus consigning the highest vote fidelity. The Vox’s ‘surpass’ to the PP It is now a greater threat than half a year ago, given that the distance between the two formations is 2.4 points and 20 deputies.

Sánchez would win down

The President of the Government would win the general elections today with a margin of 5.4 points compared to the PP, although with a worse result than the one he obtained in 2019. Sánchez would obtain 26% of the votes and 110-113 seats (now it has 120). The PSOE, in these seven months, has fallen 1.3 points and seven seats.

Socialists and popular register a vote fidelity similarly, about 56%, and both parties have three out of 10 undecided voters. That’s your main vote leakWell, in the case of the PP, the ultras of Vox only take away, for the moment, 14.3% of those who voted for it in 2019. The global percentage of undecided people in the poll is 23.4%.

Díaz, the favorite of the socialists

If the PSOE goes down in the left block, United We Can has stopped its erosion and would reap 12.5% ​​of the votes and 34-36 seats (today he is 35). He would resist, above all, because of the vice president’s pull Yolanda Diazwho is the most valued leader (4.9), the best rated among her own voters and the one who receives more marks among the PSOE electorate than Sánchez himself.

The sum of the partners of the Government, which today is 155 deputies, would move in a range of 144 to 149 seatsand only with the support of More Country could match your current brand. The sum of the three rights (PP, Vox and Cs) now maintains an advantage of a dozen deputies (152-159), somewhat below the one it had months ago. Despite this advantage, the setback would leave Casado with few options to try to unseat Sánchez, and less with vox as an essential ally. And the PSOE would continue to need, among others, the company of CKDwhich would repeat its current 13 seats.

The GESOP barometer reveals great dissatisfaction among Spaniards regarding the economic situation and the management of the coalition government. 50.5% of citizens suspend the Executive of Pedro Sanchez, which, on the other hand, receives a 24.3% pass rate. Although the conservative electorate is the most critical, one in four PSOE voters and one in five United We Can suspend the management of the Government.

Pressure on the PSOE to isolate Vox

Although Sánchez has put a very high price on his abstention, almost half of Spaniards, 49.4%, believe that the Socialists should invest the PP candidate for the Junta de Castilla y León, Alfonso Fernandez Manueco, to prevent him from agreeing with Vox. 30.5% reject this possibility and 20.2% do not know or do not answer. Even the socialist voters seem to have it clear: 60.6% support facilitating the investiture compared to 24.8% who reject it.

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