Sir Jeffrey Donaldson never uttered the word ‘crocodile’, but the DUP’s determination to stop a Sinn Fein Prime Minister backfired dramatically and galvanized the nationalist vote.
Fantastic news for Sinn Fein came from all the counting centres. It has blown away its rivals, with SDLP and People Before Profit significantly down.
The DUP’s strident opposition to the prospect of Michelle O’Neill becoming Prime Minister struck a chord in the hearts of nationalist voters and made them determined to make it happen.
And so the party was lent votes that Sinn Fein would not otherwise have liked to send a message to the DUP.
The symbolism of the party that occupies the highest position, if a new Executive is formed, in a state that it wants to abolish is enormous.
No constituency tells the story better than West Belfast. Sinn Fein will comfortably bring home its four MLAs.
SDLP’s Paul Doherty was a strong candidate who is firmly rooted in Turf Lodge and founded a food bank. However, the party’s vote fell from 9% to 6% in the constituency.
In 2016, Gerry Carroll of People Before Profit topped the poll with 22%. He was in the 8% today and will probably take the last seat.
PBP once looked like a serious rival to Sinn Fein in working-class nationalist areas, but its star has fallen. With the cost of living crisis, he seemed well positioned to take a seat at Foyle, but he wasn’t even close.
Sinn Fein possibly missed out on a trick at South Down, where they scored 44%. If he had presented another candidate, he could have obtained three seats. The SDLP dropped from 25% to 16% in the constituency and is sure to lose a seat.
Sinead Ennis, who was recently mired in controversy when historic tweets were revealed, led the poll with 14,381 votes, a number more like a victory in the Westminster election than an Assembly victory.
In East Derry, the SDLP’s Cara Hunter, who no one thought was in trouble, is likely to be fighting for the last seat with Sinn Fein’s second-place candidate.
Hunter’s difficult political situation underscores how much the party opposes it. The most symbolic loss would be Nichola Mallon in North Belfast, who could lose her seat to Alliance’s Nuala McAllister.
Mallon paid the price of concentrating more on his Stormont ministry at the expense of maintaining a high profile on the ground.
He tried to make up for lost time during the election campaign, but it may have been too late.
Ardoyne Councilman Paul McCusker, who was leading in the polls, didn’t seem to hang out with her as much as might have been anticipated, which certainly cost him votes.
If the deputy leader of the SDLP falls, it raises all sorts of questions for the party. Who will replace her in the Assembly? Sinead McLaughlin is also under pressure at Foyle, which leaves the possibility that she doesn’t have female MLAs.
With Colum Eastwood and Claire Hanna at Westminster, the SDLP would lack strong, articulate voices at Stormont.
He won big in South Belfast in the 2019 general election, but this result should raise internal concerns about retaining that seat.
Conor Houston at Strangford was the best hope of victory in the group, but it didn’t happen. The SDLP did nothing wrong during a vigorously campaigned campaign and Eastwood won the debates of both TV leaders.
But the party simply couldn’t compete with the tug on the hearts of Nationalist voters that a Nationalist holding Stormont’s top job meant.
The DUP is about to lose the post of Prime Minister. The party has taken a major hit from TUV, although it remains to be seen how many seats it will lose.
For the Ulster Unionists, it was not a great day. Doug Beattie’s liberal and inclusive trade unionism should have appealed more in urban areas, but his two Belfast hopefuls—Stephen McCarthy in the south of the city and Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston—were not competitive.
In both wards, the party’s vote fell, significantly in South Belfast. Important questions are now likely to be posed to Beattie internally about the party’s strategy.
The UUP has not won back moderate Unionist voters from the Alliance. If your liberal trade unionism doesn’t appeal to Belfast, then it’s going to be tough everywhere.
TUV has performed remarkably well, but we’ll have to wait a bit longer to see if Jim Allister returns with company.
Alliance continues its remarkable rise under the leadership of Naomi Long. It is now firmly established as the third party in Northern Ireland and has monopolized the middle ground with the green vote on the slide.
It was a good day for Long, but first and foremost it was about the choice of Michelle O’Neill. She will surely raise a glass to Sir Jeffrey for helping her throw the biggest Sinn Fein Stormont party ever.
Reference-www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk