The blows of effect are a classic of Spanish politics. A resource that all parties resort to regularly as a hook before the volatile electorate. When Pablo Casado and Isabel Díaz Ayuso got muddy between accusations of espionage and corruption, the leaders and barons of the PP saw the perfect opportunity to topple an erratic leader and anoint a kind of messiah who would clear up the electoral clouds that hung over the party. That arnica called Alberto Nunez Feijoo now enter a aura of restraint that, for the moment, has served to turn around the expectations of the conservative hosts.
The Political Barometer of Spain of the Gabinet d’Estudis Socials i Opinió Pública (GESOP) for the Prensa Ibérica group, prepared just after the PP congress that enthroned Feijóo, puts a number on that turnaround: 33 seats. They are the deputies that the PP has managed to add with the jump of its new leader to the national political board. Feijóo would now win the general elections and he would have Moncloa within his reach as long as he paid the price of accepting the votes of the extreme right of Vox.
The popular ones would get 118-121 seats (today they have 89) and they would take an 11 advantage over the PSOE, which would remain in the 107-110 deputies (now it has 120). Feijóo would achieve 28.4% of the votes and would leave the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, with 26.9%, which despite everything would rise one point compared to the survey that the GESOP carried out in February, before the Russian invasion Ukraine and the economic consequences of the war.
In that poll, after the electoral setback in Castilla y León but before the internal crisis, Casado’s PP had 8 points and 33 seats less than now, and if today Feijóo takes Sánchez 1.5 points, then Casado was 5, 4 points below the leader of the PSOE.
The field work of this barometer has been prepared from 1,000 interviews from April 4 to 6in full hangover from the conclave that chose by acclamation the still president of the Government of Galicia, that when he leaves that position he will lose the only public projection platform available to him as he is not a deputy in Congress. The fame of moderate that surrounds Feijóo explains the strong shock he has inflicted on the political boardtopping all rating and preference statistics.
In direct voting intention (the vote without ‘kitchen’), Feijóo’s jump has been almost 10 points compared to the last Casado poll, and the PP is now one point ahead of Sánchez. The consequence of this is that vote fidelity to the popular has skyrocketed and seven out of 10 voters who supported them in the 2019 general elections would now choose the same ballot, 14 points more than with Casado.
The PP would also attract 45% of the voters of citizens and 20% of the electorate of vox. The two formations would be greatly affected by Feijóo’s irruption. The ultras have stopped their escalation in their tracks and would lose two points and a dozen deputies compared to their February mark. Even so, the 54-56 seats that Abascal would reap (now he has 52) would be key for Feijóo to reach Moncloa, since he would leave the conservative sum in a range of 172 to 177 MPsbeing 176 the threshold of the absolute majority. The crutch that the PP could no longer use would be that of Cs because Feijóo’s landing would absorb the last throes of the orange party, which would disappear from Congress.
In the event that the box on the right stays below 176, and provided that Sánchez does not fall into the temptations of a grand coalition PP-PSOEthe left would have to face a real bobbin lace to retain the Government because both the Socialists and United We Can would be below their current records. The purple ones would get 26-28 seats (today they have 35), which means that they have lost eight since February and, therefore, fit most of the erosion due to the management of the crisis derived from the war in Ukraine.
The sum of the members of the Executive would move between 133 and 138 deputieswhen now it is 155, which would force them to gather the support of practically all the rest of the parliamentary arc to block the way to a right wing alliance that between now and the general elections he will still have to pass other previous electoral exams.
-Responsible company: GESOP.
-Investigation technique: Telephone interviews.
-Scope of study: Spain.
-Population: Adults with the right to vote.
-Sample: 1,000 interviews.
-Type of sampling: Proportional by autonomous communities and size of municipality. -Selection of the person to be interviewed according to crossed quotas of sex and age.
-Error range: +/- 3.16% for a confidence level of 95% and p=q=0.5.
-Field work: From April 4 to 6, 2022.