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People who don’t get the jab could end up infected with COVID every 16 months, a new study suggests.

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This month, Yale Public Health published in the Lancet the study, which explores the long-term effects of immunity to the virus that causes COVID.

Their model used endemic conditions in which everyone has been vaccinated or infected.

Biostatistics professor Jeffrey Townsend said Yale Daily News they project that natural immunity is not durable.

Study co-author Hayley Hassler said that a person infected with COVID has a 5% chance of reinfection in three months and said that according to the person, the rate of reinfection after 17 months increases to 50%.

“Our results are based on average times of decline in immunity in multiple infected individuals,” Hassler said. “Any of these individuals can experience longer or shorter periods of immunity depending on immune status, cross-immunity, age, and many other factors.”

“The overall objective of the study was to provide an answer to a question that at this point in the pandemic would be impossible to answer empirically, which is how long after being infected by SARS-CoV-2 can you expect to have immunity against the virus before of becoming vulnerable to reinfection. “

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Townsend said the results aren’t surprising because natural resistance to other coronaviruses doesn’t last long.

Other studies have similar figures to Yale’s.

A Danish report found that those under 65 have 80% protection for at least six months, but that drops to 47% for people over 65.

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