The market does not like surprises and this is what was incorporated by the exchange depreciation observed after the announcement of the Mexican president, who changed the nominee Arturo Herrera for Victoria Rodríguez Ceja for the position of Governor of the Bank of Mexico. This is how investment strategists and investment consultants saw it. Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, Swiss credit, Pantheon Macroeconomics y Frontier View.
Not much is known about the nominee and that is one of the reasons the market was surprised and nervous. Without prejudging about Mrs. Rodríguez Ceja, she does not have a public record of opinions or published works on monetary policy or financial issues that could help the market to form an opinion on her monetary policy preferences, ”the economist for Latin America said from New York. for Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos.
The perception is similar from London, where the economist for Latin America in consulting Pantheon Macroeconomics, Andrés Abadía, added that in the face of the turbulent period that is looming in the financial markets and the global economy due to the start of tapering, it would be “fundamental” for the governor of Banco de México to have experience to deal with exchange rate volatility and inflationary pressure that in itself has been brewing for a long time.
From Washington, the risk strategist in the consulting Frontier View, Alejandro Valerio, explained that given the little international exposure that Rodríguez Ceja has had, it is not possible to know what position he will have on fundamental issues such as the autonomy of the Bank of Mexico, or on the single mandate of inflation, which also fuels uncertainty.
In Mexico, the vice president of investments in the fund manager, Franklin Templeton, Luis Gonzali said that they will promptly follow up on the appearance of the official before the Senate, to have a clearer idea about her knowledge and experience to face the challenge of inflation and tapering.
He recalled that they, since last May, took her into account among the possible candidates to be nominated by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to relieve Governor Alejandro Díaz de León, who ends his post on December 31 next.
Gonzali highlights that in Rodríguez Ceja’s curriculum it is seen that most of his experience is in Mexico City, it is not even at the federal level. Outside of that we do not know where it will lean in monetary policy, because it does not even have a twitter account.
The chief economist for Latin America at Credit Suisse, Alonso Cervera, stressed that the replacement of Herrera in the nomination is read as one more move for control of the institution than for some technical argument.
Independence, alert on
Alberto Ramos says that it is not clear to them why the president’s change in the nomination, since Arturo Herrera, former Secretary of the Treasury and initially selected to occupy the position, “is a respected and internationally recognized technocrat.”
“The market is anxious and concerned about the possibility that Rodríguez Ceja is not independent from the government, as it would lead to the subordination of monetary policy towards government fiscal objectives.”
Valerio emphasized that the Governor’s work is highly technical, and since he does not have visible credentials to hold the position, what is interpreted is that more than having a position that guarantees or reaffirms the autonomy of Banxico to fulfill his mandate, he could align himself his stance towards state policy.
For Andrés Abadía, this change in the nomination “has been very inopportune. Rodríguez Ceja will arrive at just a difficult time for the Mexican economy and now, we also have to watch over its independence ”.
“At the moment AMLO has appointed three members of Banxico and all of them have had an impeccable track record. We trust that this case is not the exception ”.