The increase in the prices of raw materials continues to advance so far in the fourth quarter of the year, with the expectation that they will continue to rise, which could generate more inflationary pressures at a global level.
Wheat leads the gains among the main grains of the raw materials market, since it registers a growth of 12.54% from September 30 to this Thursday, December 2, to sell at 8.16 dollars per bushel (bag of approximately 25 kgs.) .
For its part, corn is sold at 5.76 dollars per bushel, which represents an increase of 7.48% between October and November. Both wheat and corn have been pushed by higher demand from countries like Egypt and Algeria.
Ana Azuara, Raw Materials analyst at Banco Base, explained that “expectations regarding the production of some grains improved, now that the grain production season is in the southern hemisphere, it seems that there are good harvests and weather conditions.”
He added that the price of soybeans and corn is still in line with oil prices, since these raw materials are used for the production of biofuels and crude oil has been affected during the last month.
“Corn and wheat will continue to maintain their earnings compared to how they closed the previous year, going forward it will depend a lot on weather conditions,” said the specialist.
The price of grains will continue to fluctuate as it has done until now, due to factors such as inflation, climate change and the increase in energy prices.
Industrial metals, strong
Similar to the trend for agricultural raw materials, industrial metals continue to advance so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Zinc sells at $ 3,159.75 per metric ton, with an increase of 5.75% in the last two months, while the price of lead has advanced 7.36% and is trading at 2,246.50 dollars per ton.
The biggest gain in the fourth quarter is for nickel, at 11.06% to sell at $ 19,920 a metric ton. In the year he earns 19.7 percent.
The rise in raw materials does not end, which generates higher costs for companies and therefore an increase in the prices of final products, which will continue to generate inflationary pressures for economies.
“Going forward, the volatility in the price of industrial metals derived from the energy crisis, shortage of supplies, caused by bottlenecks and production closures, the new variant of the coronavirus, pressures is expected to continue. inflationary and the effects it can bring to global economic growth ”, indicates Banco Base in a report.
Carlos Hernández, senior analyst at Masari Casa de Bolsa, explained that “the upward channel comes from fundamental and conjunctural factors. In the first place there is the dynamism registered by many economies in Europe, Asia and the United States, which translates into a consistent demand ”.
Second, “bottlenecks continue to drive administration costs that affect the final price. Producer prices at a global level have been maintained with annual growth rates above 7% ”, added the specialist.
Risk aversion
In the case of precious metals, there is a negative trend, although risk aversion has pushed investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, which sells at $ 1,769.70 per ounce, although in the quarter it only accumulated an advance of 0.64 percent.
Silver, meanwhile, has a slight increase of 1.62% between October and November, and is sold this Thursday at $ 22.41 per ounce. Platinum and palladium plummet 2.76 and 6.18% respectively, given the preference of investors for other assets.
Among industrial metals, aluminum had declines in its price by 8.75% in October and November, although so far this year its trend is upward with a 32.6% increase.
So far in the fourth quarter, soybeans are the only grain with decreases, standing with a 0.90% drop, going from 12.56 to 12.44 dollars per bushel.
According to Banco Base, “an inflation scenario is good for gold since it is usually considered a hedge against inflation, since its value increases as the purchasing power of money decreases.”
The increase in global risk aversion is derived from a new variant of the coronavirus and the entry into force of mobility restrictions in the face of an accelerated increase in the number of infections.
“This is a risk for the global economic recovery since it could cause more problems in supply chains, bottlenecks and slow down household consumption,” Banco Base clarified in a report.
Carlos Hernández considered “that there are transitory elements for the inflationary pressures that will be in force for at least the first half of 2022, but there are also structural factors that could be having a longer period of impact at the global level.”
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx