Since 1965, the first presidential election by universal suffrage and two rounds (only the first two go to the final), all French politics is marked by this election. Gaullism (nationalist and liberal right with qualms), which ruled since 1958, took hold under the presidencies of Pompidou and Giscard d’Estaing. Later came Mitterrand’s long stage and the right turn with Chirac and then Sarkozy.
But, during Sarkozy (2007-2012) and the socialist Hollande (2012-2017), unrest increased. France lost weight and immigration became a big problem. Hollande, with Valls as prime minister, crashed and in 2017 he was elected Emmanuel Macron, Hollande’s economy minister who, due to the bad times of socialists and republicans (right), knew how to weave an alliance “neither of the right nor of the left & rdquor ;, with former socialist ministers and personalities of the right.
Macron has had serious problems (the ‘yellow vests’), but your balance is not bad and France is growing (for now) more than Germany. In July, the forecast was that in the second round of the presidential elections next May, Macron and Marine Le Pen would compete again, the far-right candidate whom the president already defeated in the second round of 2017. And that Macron would have his second term.
But things may be changing. First, to the surprise of candidate Eric Zemmour, a right-right anti-Islamist journalist who can subtract votes from Marine Le Pen, which has been moderated. But the newest thing is that the Republicans, sunk in 2017 by the corruption of their candidate, seem to be resurrected. In a primary of its 100,000 militants they have just invested Valérie Pécresse, Attractive 54-year-old politician, who belongs to the high bodies of the State, worked with Chirac, was Sarkozy’s minister and has twice won the presidency of the Paris region (an Ayuso with a better resume).
Pécresse liberal in economics, prioritizes safety (without fanfare Le Pen) and defines herself as two-thirds Merkel and one-third Thatcher. He adds that “he does not feel either on the right or on the left and therefore he is on the right & rdquor ;. If Valérie Pécresse, with modern language, consolidates, You can be in the second round in two ways. One, being ahead of Le Pen and Zemmour, who can split the extreme right vote. And then stand up to Macron in the second round. And Pécresse is more skilled than Le Pen and can recover votes of order who went to Macron, because Le Pen created fear with his idea of leaving the euro. It would be a great finale.
But there is time, new problems may appear and it could also happen, less likely, that Macron, with few left-wing voters in the first round – there will be candidates such as the socialist Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, or Mélenchon (France Insoumise) who will not pass. in the final – he was behind Valérie Pécresse and was eliminated.
And Valerie Pécresse, a modern woman who does not generate great rejection in the electorate, he could comfortably beat both Marine Le Pen and Zemmour. Then, a mutation of the old party of General de Gaulle, would return to the Elysee. But Pécresse’s first subject will be to neutralize Eric Ciotti, his super-conservative opposite, who won 40% of the vote in the primaries.
If in the end Pécresse is president – a possible miracle – Germany will have turned somewhat to the left and France to the right. How would a new axis affect Europe Pécresse-Scholz?