Budget revenues circumvented the falls that were recorded in the collection of VAT and IEPS in the first quarter of the year, and even managed to exceed the estimate for the period, according to information from the quarterly report of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP).
From January to March, revenues totaled just over 1.71 billion pesos, which represented a growth of 2.2% compared to the year, and were 20.7 billion pesos above schedule.
With this, it was possible to circumvent the decrease in revenue obtained from the payment of taxes such as the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) and the Value Added Tax (VAT).
In the case of the IEPS, the annual drop was 38.4%, collecting 75,029 million pesos, which also resulted in 42,286 million pesos less than programmed. This is explained, to a greater extent, by the fiscal stimuli that have been 100% in the IEPS for gasoline since the end of February, which implies that money has stopped entering the government coffers.
In the specific case of the IEPS on gasoline, a collection of 20,029 million pesos was observed, which was 70.7% less compared to the same period last year.
“In order to avoid an inflationary rebound due to the international increase in fuel prices, the federal government granted fiscal stimuli to the fuel IEPS during the quarter, which generated a reduction in the collection of 43,462.2 million pesos with respect to what was planned in the period”, detailed the dependency.
According to calculations by the Tax Administration Service (SAT), the tax incentives for gasoline could cost the treasury between 350,000 and 400,000 million pesos this year, that is, almost three times more than the 104,076 million that were left to collect. last year.
In the case of VAT, the SHCP reported a collection of 291,667 million pesos in the first three months of the year, which represented an annual drop of 9.3%, while it was 37,979 million pesos below the estimate for the period. This, according to the agency, was due to an increase in tax refunds.
In contrast, the ISR left a collection 13.5% higher than that of the same period last year, while the tax on imports showed an increase of 30.7% in annual comparison.
With this, tax revenues left little more than 1.11 billion pesos, 1.9% more than last year, but 2,271 million pesos less than expected.
oil revenue
In the case of oil revenues, they continue to benefit from the high levels of international crude oil prices since the end of February, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put pressure on prices.
In this way, from January to March the treasury obtained 289,253 million pesos from oil revenues, which meant an annual increase of 31.7 percent. In addition, it was 3,382 million pesos higher than forecast.
Oil revenues registered a positive behavior, standing above the program by 3,382 million pesos, driven upwards by a higher international price of crude oil. In addition, in its annual comparison, this item increased 31.7% in real terms as a result, in the same way, of higher energy prices, as well as higher production and higher sales”, highlighted the Treasury.
Just in April, the dependency increased its estimate of the price of oil in the face of the current situation. In this way, it now forecasts a price per barrel of 92.9 dollars instead of 55.1 dollars that it had previously estimated.
Reject spending cuts
Gabriel Yorio, undersecretary of the Treasury, ruled out cuts in public spending due to the subsidies that are being granted to gasoline, both the IEPS and the complementary one, according to his latest statements to the media.
In a press videoconference, the official said that these stimuli will have a neutral impact on the country’s public finances, and will not cause cuts in public spending.
“They will have a neutral impact on public finances. It will not have effects on budget cuts or spending. Virtually all of the additional positive flow of oil revenue that is being captured is being passed through to the economy,” he stated.
Expenditure sub-year was for $3,120 million
The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) reported, in the first quarter of the year, an expense of 1 billion 799,340 million pesos, which resulted in an increase of 0.8% in annual comparison; however, it represented an under-exercise for the first three months of the year.
According to the approved program, it was expected that spending in the period would be 1,802,460 million pesos, that is, the government spent 3,120 million pesos less than programmed.
It was the programmable expense, which is destined to provide goods and services to the population, where the sub-exercises of the period were concentrated. With 1.3 trillion pesos exercised in the first three months of the year, this item fell 2.2% annually and was 6,605 million pesos below what was approved.
“Inside, programmable spending, which shows an advance of 25.5% with respect to the annual budget, showed a real annual reduction of 2.2 percent. However, this situation did not prevent spending on subsidies, transfers and contributions from growing 3.5% in real terms per year and reaching 51,916.8 million pesos above what was programmed,” the agency highlighted in its report.
In the case of non-programmable spending, without counting the financial cost of the debt, an exercise of 299.075 million pesos was observed, 14% more than last year, and 221 million pesos more than what was approved. Meanwhile, the financial cost of the debt was 164,279 million pesos, 5.5% more annually and 3,263 million more than those contemplated in the period.
“Derived from the above, the public deficit stood at 66,479.3 million pesos, which compares favorably with the originally programmed deficit of 107,272.7 million pesos. In addition, it highlights that this figure is 25.4% lower in real terms per year compared to that registered in the first three months of 2021,” the agency specified.
Regarding the debt in its broadest measure, the Historical Balance of the Financial Requirements of the Public Sector (SHRFSP) was reported to be 13.12 billion pesos, which represented 45.4% of the product.