There is no public spending binge that does not have to pay the consequences with a tax hedge. Unless, of course, you have the infallible remedies at hand to cure that condition of excess in the waste of resources.
If something is missing in these times, it is information on how the money of Mexicans who pay taxes is spent. Among the reassignments from the National Palace, the lack of a reliable registry of client programs, the military management of the flagship works of this regime, the bottomless barrel of Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) and the opacity decree, It is not so easy to know how many snowballs are being created for the years of the López Obrador government closing.
With our fingers crossed we hope that Inegi’s information remains timely, truthful and reliable and that monetary policy maintains the autonomy it has enjoyed for 26 years.
But with the visible information on the fiscal management of the Mexican economy, there are already advances of difficulties towards the end of this six-year term.
Goldman Sachs warns about the combination of an economy that will have poor growth and the enormous drain on resources that imply “contingent liabilities from poorly managed state-owned companies economically dependent on the government.”
A weak fiscal outlook, with a scenario of higher interest rates, weak fixed and financial investment and in the last step of investment grade, implies risks for the next few years.
There will not be a resignation of the regime to its emblematic plans of social assistance, much less to continue with its flashy works and neither to throw tons of bills into the bottomless barrels of Pemex and CFE.
The cuts in non-priority areas in the President’s political plan have been severe and increasing the size of the budget gaps can lead to important operational problems, with social impact.
There is no guardadito as there was the rest of this century. The 4T just spent it all. Almost 20 years of savings in government contingency funds lasted two years for the current government. And it was not the pandemic, because in 2019 they burned more than half of the Budgetary Income Stabilization Fund to complete their government spending.
Despite the fact that this regime has increased the amounts of public debt, although they assure the opposite, that level of around 50% of the Gross Domestic Product provides an exit door to the fiscal imbalances that are coming.
The problem is the quality of spending that would be sought with this greater indebtedness and the loss of sources of financing with low investment and growing distrust.
In short, if the calamity of the first two years of government was the recession and the current inflation in the middle of the mandate, the loss of the much vaunted macroeconomic health seems to be the contribution of anguish to the markets during the closing of this government .
Host of Televisa Newscasts
The great Depression
Graduated in Communication Sciences from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, with a specialty in finance from the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico and a master’s degree in Journalism from the Anáhuac University.
His professional career has been dedicated to different media. He is currently a columnist for the newspaper El Economista and a host of newscasts on Televisa. He is the owner of the 2:00 pm news space on Foro TV.
He is a specialist in economic-financial matters with more than 25 years of experience as a commentator and host on radio and television. He has been part of companies such as Radio Programs de México, where he participated in the VIP business radio. He was also part of the management and talent team of Radio Fórmula.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx