Quick guide to understanding the German elections in five minutes

The next September 26 more than 60 million German citizens are called to the polls to choose the new Bundestag, chamber from which the new Government will have to leave for the next four years. Voters do not directly elect their chancellorInstead, they appoint the members of the federal parliament, which is the one who has the mandate to appoint the head of the Government.

Because they are important

With almost 80 million inhabitants, Germany It is the most populous country in the EU and represents the largest economy in Europe. It has a GDP of 3,861 trillions of dollars, far ahead of economies such as the British or the French. In fact, in the wake of the debt crisis of a decade ago, it earned the label of europe locomotive.

With these data, the expectation generated by these elections in neighboring countries is high. However, if the heirs of Angela Merkel – who is no longer running in these elections – manage to stay in power, the new government will be politically continuing.

What Germany decides next Sunday is also important for the rest of the world precisely because its industry carries a lot of weight in the global market. The German economy relies heavily on its exports: its most significant trading partners are China, France and USA.

What matches are presented

Merkel leaves the Executive after 16 years in the Chancellery. The best known candidates are Armin Laschet and Olaf Scholz, but more than 30 games are presented to these elections and some of them will be key so that the winner can form his executive.

Armin Laschet is the candidate of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and his main rival is Olaf Scholz, from Social Democratic Party (SPD). The majority of the votes will go to them, but four other formations will also be in the chamber.

Susanne Hennig-Wellsow and Janine Wissler They are the leaders of The Left (The left), Annalena Baerbock will represent The Verdes. Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weide, of the AfD (Alternative for Germany), seek the most anti-immigration vote; and Christian Lindner will be the candidate of the Liberals of the FDP.

What the polls say

A few days before the elections, the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, current vice chancellor and finance minister, is the favorite in most of the polls, with between 25 and 26% of the support. In second position, and on the heels of Scholz, would be Merkel’s successor, the conservative Laschet, with between 21 and 22% of the votes. The demoscopy places Los Verdes in third place, with between 16 and 17% of the votes. The environmentalists would achieve the best result in their history in a general election.

The doubts arise from the fourth position. Here the liberals and the extreme rightists of Alternative for Germany enter the war. The polls smile less at the post-communists of Die Linke, who may not make it into Parliament. You must exceed the legal minimum of 5% to obtain representation in the Bundestag.

How the German electoral system works

It is a system complex. Some Germans don’t even understand it. The ballots are divided into two parts. On the one hand, one deputy is elected per electoral district – Germany is divided into 299 districts – and, on the other, voters vote not for a specific person but for a political party – the constituency here is the land or the federated state-.

That is, two independent votes are cast, but the second, that of closed lists, is the most important, since it is the one that serves to measure the presence of political formations within the Bundestag.

There is no fixed number of parliamentarians. Parliament consists of 598 seats plus the so-called additional seatss, which have the objective of maintaining proportionality between the two types of vote.

This structure makes it difficult for a party to rule alone. Avoid absolute majorities and forces the formations to agree.

What are the possible coalitions?

What is clear is that there will be a coalition government, something that is not unusual in a parliamentary democracy like the Teutonic: minority governments generate distrust. Whoever is the winner must reach other agreements with other parties in order to form a government. The fragmented political landscape will complicate a viable alliance and, in that search for partners, different options open:

1. The Grand Coalition. It is more of the same. It would consist of reissuing the pact that was born in 2013 between the Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democrats. In terms of the state, it is the most stable solution if one takes into account that a tripartite coalition can bring more political instability. But this time the CDU and the SPD may not add up.

2. The Jamaica Coalition. It would be a government made up of the conservatives of the CDU, the Greens and the liberals of the FDP. It is named for the colors of the three parties (black, green and yellow), which coincide with the flag of the Caribbean country.

This tripartite alliance, which has never been tested at the federal level, is frowned upon by either environmentalists or centrists. The reason? The big differences program on key topics such as immigration or energy.

3. Merkel’s Conservatives + FDP’s Liberals. It would be the Jamaica coalition but without Los Verdes. This alliance already materialized in Merkel’s second term (2009-2013), but it could not be reissued in her third term because the Liberal deputies disappeared from the political map. In 2017 the liberals returned to the Bundestag, but they did not join Merkel to make her chancellor, so she chose to reissue the grand coalition.

4. Coalition of the Left. Scholz’s Social Democrats could agree with The Left and the Greens – a left tripartite – a coalition that does not fully convince the post-communists, due to the Left’s positions on foreign policy, with its rejection of NATO and military missions and its ambiguous position towards the EU. This pact of the three left does not like the conservatives either, who have been warning for days of the “danger” of a post-communist eco-social government.

5. Red-green minority government. It is a variant of which little has been said. It would be a social democratic-ecologist executive tolerated from outside by the Left.

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