Publisher | Feijóo turns around

The coalition government between the PSOE and United We Can (UP) has lived in recent weeks its worst moment since it was formed in January 2020. Social unrest due to the uncontrollable rise in prices, the transporters’ strike, the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and the turn of foreign policy on the Sahara conflict are the most prominent expressions of the Government’s loss of credibility. But also, this situation of bewilderment and paralysis It has coincided with the renewal of the leadership in the PP, with the replacement of Pablo Casado, representative of an erratic policy and relentless opposition, by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, labeled moderate and open to state pacts with the Government of Pedro Sánchez.

This new political situation is reflected in the GESOP survey for the Prensa Ibérica group that we published this Monday and that constitutes a serious warning to the Government. The arrival of Feijóo has completely turned the political board upside down, which can be seen in all the aspects covered by the poll: the still Galician president would win the elections if they were held now, he displaces Yolanda Díaz and Sánchez as best valued leader and as the favorite to occupy Moncloa, It stops the rise of Vox, a party that, however, it would need to govern, and bites into all electorates.

The survey was carried out in full euphoria of the PP and Feijóo, as soon as the party congress concluded, a fact that would also explain the magnitude of the turnaround. But the data is overwhelming: the PP would win 33 seats since the February poll, would obtain between 118 and 121 deputies and would lead the PSOE by 11, which would drop from 120 to 107-110. The Galician president is the only leader who approves in valuation, with 5.2, one point more than Sánchez, and is the preferred one to be president, with 23.3%, seven points more than Díaz and Sánchez. There is also a change in expectations: 40.2% of Spaniards they believe that the next general elections will be won by the PP, when in February the favorite was the PSOE, with 3.5 points more than the popular ones.

Feijóo penetrates all the electorates, since, in addition to a high rating in the PP (7.5), The voters of Ciudadanos and Vox approve of him (6) and get a pass (5) even among socialist voters. In addition to reinforcing the fidelity of the vote of the PP (7 out of 10 would vote for it again), it would take 45% of the voters of Cs, who would disappear from Congress, and 20% of those of Vox, who would lose a dozen deputies since February (up to 54-56). With this situation, the only way to govern would be a pact between the PP and Vox, which Feijóo has not ruled out, but it is very possible that the great PSOE-PP coalition be raised again if the war in Ukraine and its economic consequences continue.

Of all the open fronts that it has the Government only approves of the political response to the war, but it is suspended by 8 out of 10 in the economic plan due to the consequences of the conflict (including two thirds of the PSOE and UP) and in the way of dealing with the strike of carriers (54.2% against). In the turn over the Sahara, the President of the Government, who took a personal initiative on an issue that deserved agreement with the opposition, the suspense is 56.5% of those consulted and only 10% endorse it.

Pessimism, however, is widespread in Spanish society because two out of three respondents think that a PP government would do the same or worse.

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