Six months before the elections, the combined effect of the war in Ukraine and the end of health measures in Quebec seems to have slowed down François Legault’s fall in voting intentions, reveals a Léger poll. For Dominique Anglade, the lights are red.
“It’s the end of the stampede for the CAQ,” believes Jean-Marc Léger. The pollster observes that “everywhere in the world”, the apparent exit from the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are “two events that favor governments” and “contribute to the stability of the vote”.
The trend was down for the Coalition Avenir Québec – all in all still very dominant – which had lost six points since the fall, including four just before the end of the curfew in January.
Other good news for François Legault’s party: unlike most of his opponents, his support is “solid”, notes Mr. Léger, while 67% of CAQ respondents say that their choice is final for the October 3 elections. .
This is twice as much as at Québec solidaire, where the electorate is the most volatile.
Duhaime retains his support
Despite the gradual lifting of most of the health measures, Éric Duhaime retains most of the support he has been able to grab by taking advantage of the fed up of Quebecers. The Conservative Party of Quebec is still down two points from last month in the greater Quebec City region, where it performs best.
Among Francophones, the right-wing party, which rose to second place in February, now finds itself neck and neck with Québec solidaire.
In the province as a whole, the Solidaires collected two additional points.
The PLQ in decline
Among non-French speakers, the fall is downright brutal for the Liberal Party of Dominique Anglade, with a descent of 13 points compared to last month.
In the electorate as a whole, the PLQ, which had been standing still for a while, fell this time by 2%.
The Liberals are losing momentum even in the greater Montreal area, where most of their MPs come from, with a drop of five points since the previous poll. Among Francophones, Dominique Anglade’s party ranks dead last.
And there is worse: “One in two Liberals is satisfied with the government,” notes Jean-Marc Léger. Same thing with the PQ. “That doesn’t make you strong activists,” quips Mr. Léger.
The Liberal Party, which has often presented itself as the party of the economy, no longer seems to be convincing in this matter: Quebecers are three times more likely to believe that François Legault’s party is best placed to lead the post-pandemic recovery. .
The marginalized PQ
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon remains the least popular leader, with only 3% of respondents believing he would make a good prime minister, compared to 13% for Éric Duhaime, who has gained one point more here than in February.
“The PQ is increasingly marginalized,” considers Mr. Léger. The by-election in Marie-Victorin, where a two-way race with the CAQ is being played out, will therefore be decisive for the Parti Québécois.
According to the pollster, it is to be expected, in the coming weeks, that a player will establish himself as the real opponent of François Legault. “For the moment, there are four of them,” remarks Mr. Léger.
METHODOLOGY : Web survey conducted by Léger from March 4 to 6 among 1,013 Quebecers aged 18 or over who have the right to vote in Quebec. It is not possible to calculate a margin of error on a sample drawn from a panel, but for comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1013 respondents is plus or minus 3.1%, and this 19 times out of 20.
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Quebecers will vote to choose their government on October 3. Less than seven months from the elections, The newspaper, TVA and the QUB platform are today publishing the second monthly survey that measures the mood of the electorate. Every month, discover the results of this exclusive Léger survey and consult the full report on the QUB platform and on qub.ca. Follow us until the day of the vote: on the way to the elections!
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