Ontario’s New COVID-19 Cases Could Drop to 200 a Day, or Increase to 5,000, Latest Modeling Projects

Ontario’s fourth wave of COVID-19 has flattened out, but cases have risen in just over half of the province’s health units in the past two weeks, particularly in children ages five to 11, who have yet to are eligible for vaccination, says the newly modeled scientific table.

The model projects a wide range of new case levels for November 1, from around 200 per day at best, to 1,500 with no policy or behavior changes, to 5,000 if virus transmission increases by 25. percent.

The big difference reflects “the fragile situation and the high degree of instability as colder weather and longer indoors approach,” says the presentation of the model of the corps of doctors, epidemiologists and other scientists advising Prime Minister Doug Ford.

“Continuous control over the growth of cases requires high vaccination rates in the eligible population, continuous measures of public health and a flattening of the growth of mobility.”

By behaviors and mobility, the science table refers to its earlier call for people to reduce person-to-person contacts and how much they are away from home.

But with new infections, hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions stable in recent weeks, Ontario has been trending at best in the model released Sept. 1.

“Today’s model further reinforces that as a result of Ontario’s extremely cautious approach, including maintaining strong public health measures such as interior masking, the province’s health care and public health indicators remain stable or improving.” the Health Ministry said in a statement.

“The implementation of vaccine certificates in higher risk environments will help protect the progress of the province. We are seeing the impact of this policy, with thousands more rolling up their sleeves for the first and second doses every day.

“In the months to come, we will maintain our cautious approach and continue to make decisions based on the best medical and scientific advice.”

The number of new COVID-19 cases has been declining in Toronto, the Peel region, the York region, the Durham region and Hamilton, but is increasing in 19 of the 34 regional health units in the province, including Ottawa. , Waterloo, Peterborough and the southwest area. around St. Thomas and Lambton, which includes Sarnia.

Ontario reported 466 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday with 11 more deaths. The seven-day average of new infections has been steadily declining in recent weeks to 606.

Just over 80 percent of Ontarians over the age of 12 have received two doses of a vaccine, and nearly 86 percent have received just one.