Ontario science table to release new COVID-19 modeling today

Ontario’s Science Advisory Table is set to release new COVID-19 modeling today after the head of the table said daily case counts appear to have slowed down amid a sixth wave of the pandemic.

The table is set to release the new projections at 1:30 pm, nearly a month after the last modeling was published.

On Wednesday, Dr. Peter Jüni, the scientific director of the table, said the latest wastewater data shows that the province may have plateaued at 100,000 COVID-19 cases per day.

“We know we slowed down. Is this now a plateau, and we stay on a high plateau? Do we go up again, especially after Easter? It will depend on us. Or do we start to go down? We need to have a few more days of data to be a bit more confident, but by all means, it looks much better than six, seven days ago,” he told CP24.

He said the slowdown could be linked to several factors, including accumulated immunity through vaccination and infection. I have estimated about six million Ontarians have been infected with Omicron since December last year.

Last week, Jüni said the province was likely seeing between 100,000 and 120,000 new infections of COVID-19 every day.

Although cases appear to be slowing down, Jüni cautioned that residents need to remain vigilant especially at gatherings for Easter weekend.

“So I’m glad about this plateau, but I would be even more thrilled if we all were a bit careful for a few more weeks,” he said.

The Ontario Science COVID-19 Table released updating wastewater data on April 14, 2022.

On Wednesday, the province reported 1,332 COVID-19 hospitalizations, including 182 in intensive care. Provincial labs processed 23,618 tests, generating a positivity rate of at least 17.5 per cent, according to the Ministry of Health.

Thirteen net new virus–related fatalities were also reported yesterday.

In the table’s last modelling, it said that hospital ICU occupancy could increase to 300 patients by May, due to the removal of mask mandates and the contagious BA.2 Omicron subvariant.

-With files from CP24’s Bryann Aguilar

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