For a few days, the world has held its breath as the scientific community rushes to assess the true risk posed by the new omicron variant, first identified in South Africa. The main message is that it is still too early to tell.
It is thought that omicron may have arisen from a chronic infection in an immunocompromised patient and that it has been under the radar for some time. Many of the mutations that it presents could, on paper, increase its transmissibility or make it more resistant to the immunity conferred by current vaccines. But only the data will tell us whether the interaction between all those mutations has a real impact.
The first data will surely come from the laboratory in the coming weeks, and will give us an idea of whether this variant is less recognized by the serum of vaccinated or convalescent people. There is likely to be a loss of effectiveness of the vaccines, even greater than that seen with the delta variant, but hopefully the protection against serious illness and death is maintained. Especially if we strengthen immunity with third doses in the most vulnerable populations. Other important data will come from the clinic, and they will tell us if the variant causes more severe symptoms (or less), and in what age groups. Regarding the impact on the few antiviral treatments that we have today, it is likely that those based on monoclonal antibodies lose effectiveness due to mutations in the Spike protein, but antivirals developed by Merck and Pfizer (and soon to be on the market) should work just as well.
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Finally, the most relevant data will be the epidemiological data, which will tell us if omicron is capable of displacing the already highly transmissible delta. If this is not the case, then a greater ability to evade immunity or greater virulence would be less relevant (as was the case with beta or gamma variants). If it turns out to be even more transmissible than delta, then we may have to face a new wave of cases and hospitalizations, especially in vulnerable or unvaccinated people.
The variant has already been identified in several European countries, so closing borders is not the solution. The solution is to stop the emergence and / or spread of new variants through the equitable distribution of vaccines globally. South Africa and Botswana They are two of the countries with the highest percentage of vaccination in Africa, and even so they do not reach 40% of people with the complete schedule. The fewer people vaccinated, the more likely it is that new variants will continue to emerge and spread. It is also urgent that all countries strengthen their genomic surveillance and communicate information quickly and transparently (as South Africa did). For the moment, patience to have more data and to be able to draw conclusions. And prudence while we have them.
Reference-www.elperiodico.com