Not even in 2023 will we have inflation at the 3% target: Banxico Survey

Not even in 2023 will inflation return to the specific objective of 3%; in fact, private sector specialists surveyed by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) anticipate that at that time, the annual variation of the National consumer price index (INPC) in Mexico will be 3.72 percent.

In the last survey of the year, experts again revised their expectation for inflation for this year, and left it at 7.63%, a rate that completed 13 upward revisions.

The new estimate exceeds the 7.20% projected by the same experts at the beginning of the month and becomes the highest expectation obtained in the survey at least since 2006. Not even in that year, when the world period of commodity inflation was presented , nor in 2017, when the so-called gasoline In the country, there was a de-anchoring of short-term expectations of this size.

The specialists consulted foresee that next year inflation will register a more moderate fluctuation, which will take the record to 4.22%, a projection that incorporates a ninth monthly upward adjustment and that clearly exceeds the forecast obtained at the beginning of the month, which was 4.12%. hundred.

In the section on economic growth, the specialists also adjusted down their projection on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year, for the third consecutive reading. Now they estimate a rebound of 5.59% in economic activity, which is lower than the 5.65% estimated in the survey at the beginning of December.

The new average estimate of GDP that the private sector specialists have is below the expectations revised by the LA Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) of 5.9%; and the one with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which is 6.2%, and is above the range estimated by the Banxico which is between 5% and 5.7 percent.

For him Mexico GDP for the coming year, they calculate that economic activity will achieve growth of 2.79%, which is the same level they expected at the beginning of December. However, the forecast is far from the assumption that the Mexican government has and on which it bases the Economic package, which is 4.1 percent.

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