A Sackville mathematical biologist says he hopes to independently investigate New Brunswick’s neurological syndrome of unknown cause.
If you’ve never heard of mathematical biology, you’re not alone, but Matthew Betti has made a career out of it: he’s spent much of the last two years modeling data on COVID-19 and healthcare demand for the Public Health Agency. from Canada. .
During that time he says he has learned a few tricks.
“The key is to have good data and a lot of it,” says Betti.
“That can solve a lot of problems in general in the world.”
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Now, Betti hopes to apply that logic to the mysterious neurological syndrome plaguing New Brunswick.
He says he first became aware of the matter in March 2021, when internal government memos reflecting on the issue were leaked to the media.
“I thought this would be a great opportunity for mathematical modeling,” he says.
“At the very least, it can help narrow down the places to look or the most likely places to look.”
Theoretically, plotting common ground between cases of interest could yield trends and enable forecasting.
Betti says she took that idea, and her experience, directly to the New Brunswick Department of Health and offered to lend a hand in the investigation.
The Department of Health confirms to Global News that Betti contacted the acting director of epidemiology in March 2021.
“She thanked Professor Betti for his interest, but informed him that the research was in the early stages and that she would contact him if the need arose,” says Bruce MacFarlane, director of communications.
He says the data Betti requested is “still being compiled.”
“So I let it go,” says Betti, “in the hope of making some contact.”
However, he says he gave up hope when the province released a public report in October.
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“I don’t know if I would have felt comfortable drawing the conclusions they drew.”
Betti says he believes so strongly in the potential benefits of the modeling he proposed that he has begun the process of doing his research independently, starting by reaching out to some of those at the heart of the so-called cluster.
“There are a lot of statistical tools out there that are strictly designed to find non-obvious relationships between data points,” says Betti.
“The math part of my brain equates patients with data points because that’s what they are once you have all this data, but it’s important to remember that they’re still people.”
Advocates say something has got to give
Steve Ellis, whose father is believed to have suffered from this syndrome, says he welcomes Betti’s research.
“Ultimately, though,” says Ellis, “what needs to happen now is that the government of [New Brunswick] to resume their work with federal experts and conduct environmental testing.”
“The government of [New Brunswick] He hasn’t investigated anything and they need to get started.”
Raising the same concern, the Canadian health advocacy organization BloodWatch.org has been petitioning the federal government to take control of the investigation.
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“They have a right to have a scientific investigation,” says Kat Lanteigne, co-founder of BloodWatch.
“It is their right to a dignified life.
“The New Brunswick Minister of Health has no right to obstruct scientific research for alternative political purposes.
“That is deeply unfair to those people,” says Lanteigne.
BloodWatch sent an open letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday, urging action at a level higher than the New Brunswick legislature.
The province still says an oversight committee report in addition to its October report is coming soon.
Global News requested more details on when it might arrive, but did not get a response.
Lanteigne hopes it won’t make much of a difference.
“It is essentially another press release for the province, regardless of what it says.”
In the meantime, Betti says she has submitted her research proposal for ethics approval, having contacted dozens of people affected by this syndrome.
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