Most Canadians believe Canada-U.S. relations will worsen if Trump is elected president: poll

Three in four Canadians believe relations between Canada and the United States will worsen if Donald Trump is elected to replace Joe Biden as president in the next US election, a new Nanos Research poll shows.

“The reality is that Donald Trump can win the presidential election,” Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos said on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.

“The (last) elections he lost, he lost narrowly. It was literally almost a handful of votes out of the millions of votes cast that put Joe Biden in the White House. “So I think we have to approach this as something that could potentially happen.”

The survey, conducted between Jan. 29 and 31, also found that Canadians aged 55 and older are more likely to think relations between the two countries will deteriorate (62 per cent) or somewhat deteriorate (20 per cent). ).

In comparison, half of Canadians aged 18 to 34 expect relationships to be worse and 18 per cent of people in that age range expect relationships to be somewhat worse.

Women (66 percent) are more likely than men (50 percent) to believe relationships will be worse.

(Nano Research)

Prairie residents were more likely than those in any other region to think that Canada-U.S. relations would be better or somewhat better (15.4 per cent) if Trump were elected president, while Atlantic Canadians were more likely prone to think that relationships would improve. be worse or somewhat worse (83.7 percent).

About two per cent of Canadians surveyed said they are unsure how relations between the two countries will change if Trump, the former US president, is elected to replace Biden as president in the next election.

The United States federal elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Voters will elect a president and vice president for the next four years.

Trump is the favorite to be the Republican presidential nominee, while Biden faces little opposition in the Democratic Party in his campaign for a second term. Reuters is reporting.

As has been the case in the past, Nanos said American presidents (both Democrats and Republicans) tend to focus on the situation in their own country and “Canada generally doesn’t benefit from that because they make decisions based on the domestic political situation.” . situation.”

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by CTV News and the research was conducted by Nanos Research.

Nanos conducted a hybrid random telephone and online survey of 1,114 Canadian adults between January 29 and 31, 2024.

Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered an online survey.

The results were statistically verified and weighted by age and sex using information from the last census. The sample was also stratified geographically to be representative of Canada.

The margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out on Wednesday, February 20.

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