Although it is much more contagious, Ómicron is certainly much less virulent. One month after its detection in South Africa, this new variant is already better known, although it is not yet known to what extent it will influence the Covid-19 pandemic.
What do we know about Ómicron?
Regarding the Delta variant, “its transmission is much higher but it is probably less serious, although we do not know to what extent,” Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the scientific council that advises the government of France, explained Thursday.
Ómicron is progressing very quickly in many countries and cases are doubling every two or three days, something never seen before.
It is already the dominant variant in Denmark and the United Kingdom (where, in total, there are more than 100,000 daily cases) and will soon be in other countries where delta predominated until now.
At the same time, the first studies, conducted this week in South Africa, Scotland and England, show that omicron causes less hospital admissions than delta.
Although this is incomplete data that must be looked at with caution, omicron could be between 35 and 80% less serious.
This raises an important question: it is not known if the fact that it is less violent is due to the mutations of the variant or the fact that it infects people who were already partially immunized (thanks to the vaccine or from a previous infection) .
What consequences in hospitals?
For now, it is the great enigma.
The equation depends on two unknowns: Will Omicron’s lower severity compensate for the fact that it is much more contagious?
“Although omicron causes less severe symptoms, the number of cases could again overwhelm those health systems that are not ready,” recently warned the director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
This does not appear to be a problem in the country where the variant was identified, South Africa. However, in the northern hemisphere, where the population is larger, hospitalizations are much more of a concern.
“It is very important to study what is going to happen in London next week because it will teach us a lot about the seriousness” of the disease that causes omicron, said Arnaud Fontanet, a member of the French advisory council on Thursday.
What about vaccines?
Omicron mutations appear to reduce the immunity of antibodies against the virus, so it can spread among many of the vaccinated people (and even re-infect some).
Several studies carried out in the laboratory show that the antibody rate falls against omicron among people who received the vaccines from Pfizer / BioNTech, Moderna and, to a lesser extent, AstraZeneca or Sinovac (Chinese vaccine present in about fifty countries).
A booster dose seems to clearly improve antibody immunity. At least that is what different laboratories announced this week: Pfizer / BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca. But one crucial piece of information is missing: it is unknown how long this effect lasts.
And conversely, a study by Hong Kong researchers published Thursday shows that even with the booster, the Sinovac vaccine does not elicit enough antibodies.
In the case of Novavax, which became the fifth vaccine authorized by the European Union on Monday, its answer is not yet known, since when the clinical trials were carried out the most common variants were alpha and beta.
But that does not mean that vaccines are not effective, because antibodies are only one of the tools of the immune response, which also relies on cells called T lymphocytes.
Although more difficult to measure, this “cellular immunity” is no less important, especially in severe cases of the disease.
Thus, a study presented in mid-December in South Africa suggests that Pfizer / BioNTech continues to be effective against severe forms caused by omicron, even before the booster dose (and certainly long after).
Chaos?
Although the wave of infections due to Ómicron does not collapse hospitals, this variant could cause chaos in many countries.
Its unprecedented transmission could lead to a wave of “absenteeism” due to the isolation measures, leading to “disorganization” in many sectors (supermarkets, transport, hospitals, schools …), the French scientific council warned.
“It is a situation that we had not experienced with the other waves and that occurs due to the speed of omicron propagation,” insisted a member of the council, Olivier Guérin.
To limit this “disorganization” it would be necessary to be more flexible in terms of isolation rules, since omicron causes less serious forms of covid-19.
This is what the British government decided on Wednesday, which increased the isolation period in England from ten to seven days for vaccinated people.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx