Modeling shows COVID-19 cases stabilizing in British Columbia, but children are now at higher risk

The study says children will benefit if a vaccine is approved for ages five to 11 and that would help prevent spread to unvaccinated adults.

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An independent group looking at the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in British Columbia and Canada has released a new model that contains some good news but also raises concerns, especially about the impact of the virus on children.

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The report by 12 epidemiologists, mathematicians and data analysts, from the Universities of Victoria and British Columbia, Simon Fraser University and the private sector, covers the period to October 4.

It shows that pressure on BC’s intensive care units remains near peak levels, but that COVID-19 cases stabilized through September due to masking, vaccination, and other public health measures.

However, the report finds that cases among British Columbia youth rose sharply at health authorities in Fraser, Interior and Vancouver Island, with children accounting for nearly 50 percent of unvaccinated residents in the province. .

It says that because vaccines allow looser restrictions, COVID-19 infections among those under 12 are higher than at any other time in the pandemic, and at least 20 percent will have had the virus within two years.

The study says children will benefit if a vaccine is approved for those ages five to 11, and that would also help prevent spread to unvaccinated adults.

The British Columbia government said Wednesday that nearly 82 percent of eligible residents have now been fully vaccinated against the virus.

The province reported 624 new COVID-19 cases and four deaths on Thursday. Active infections amount to 5,929, while the total number of cases since the start of the pandemic exceeds 191,000.