We believe that last year, production decreased by 65 million liters; basically due to the lower number of cows that were milked, since they were sent earlier to produce meat.”
Vicente Gómez Cobo, president of Femeleche
The high price of grains -corn, soybeans and sorghum-, added to the increase in the cost of forages -oats and alfalfa- and fertilizers, make it possible to foresee that the production of milk in the country will have a decrease of over 3% for close at 130 million liters, estimated Vicente Gómez Cobo, president of the Mexican Dairy Federation (Femeleche).
Within the framework of the presentation of the 7th National Dairy Forum, to be held in April in León, Guanajuato, Gómez Cobo explained that, unlike the official data, the industry reflects a lower production since last year, since the The high cost of inputs, and the increase in consumer prices, have caused lower consumption and low production.
“Official data says that milk production grew 3.3% last year, but that data is not correct, the methodology used by the Agrifood and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP), makes it not entirely real; we consider that in the past year, production decreased by 65 million liters; basically due to the lower number of cows that were milked, since they were sent earlier to produce meat,” explained Gómez Cobo.
He explained that the SIAP carries out surveys whose results are presented in an excel, but the data is inaccurate, among other reasons, the number of personnel who could apply the surveys has decreased, and given the reality of 2021 and the report that was presented, it is evident that the data is not credible, “the accounts do not work out,” he said.
Summer, a complicated panorama
The president of Femeleche highlighted that, until the last two weeks, the cost of production had risen 40%, only considering food; if this is transformed into milk price, “it grew between 2 and 3 pesos per liter until February, we estimate that in two weeks there will be another increase of 50 cents; while the price paid by the consumer has had an impact of 10 percent”.
For Gómez Cobo, an impact is expected for the summer, since it is estimated that there will be no financial capacity and this will cause milk production to decrease, since ahead of time and “to complete the week, we sell meat; this will affect the productive capacity of milk”.
He recalled that the smallest producers are the ones with the greatest difficulty, as they face greater vulnerability to all costs.
For his part, Francisco López Tostado, president of the State Agrifood Council of Guanajuato, stated that “it is important to address problems such as the rise in inputs, and avoid generating greater inflationary pressure. This represents a greater need to strengthen the synergy of production chains.”
The analysis of the Group of Consultants of Agricultural Markets (GCMA) reports that the national dairy industry is maintained despite the high costs of inputs, “how complex it is to measure consumer demand and the slow growth of the price paid to the producer that has repercussions in the strengthening of the herd”.
Above all, explained Juan Carlos Anaya, general director of GCMA, that at the international level the price has risen to 32.5% compared to what was offered in January 2021 and in Mexico the levels are maintained.
Milk production for this year is expected to be 13.6 million tons, very similar to that of 2021; The producing areas with the highest value are: Jalisco with 21.4% of the national value, followed by Coahuila with 11.9%; Durango with 10.5% Chihuahua, 9.7%; Guanajuato with 7.1 percent.
Mexico remains the second world importer of whole milk and the third importer of total milk.