Faced with the frank economic slowdown, the uncertainty caused by the government initiative to reform the Electricity Law, the high levels of insecurity and the adverse international context, how does the president and director of the global bank HSBC in Mexico, the Mexican George Arc?
His outlook is generally optimistic. But he does not fail to observe that there is cause for concern. He sees her with chiaroscuro.
For HSBC the diagnosis is positive. It closed the year 2021 very well and starts the year 2022 with a positive trend. Although it cannot disseminate specific information because it is in the days prior to the dissemination of its global and local results.
This year it will make a larger investment than the one made in the last five years in Mexico.
But in general terms, the balance in all its products shows positive numbers and it has an 8.5% market share.
In fact, it is the bank that gains the largest market share in all its lines, from consumer, mortgage, insurance, payroll loans, international trade and financing.
It has a network of 5,000 branches and that is worth a lot if you consider that most Mexicans prefer to use cash.
For this global bank, Mexico is a very important place to be.
Its purpose is to continue the drive to digitize the experience of its customers: to make it easier for them to make their payments, obtain a mortgage loan for the purchase of a car and, save or obtain insurance or have advice for their investments. .
The idea is that customers have the certainty that they can get everything they need in banking and financial services.
The outlook for the development of the banking industry in Mexico is very good.
When Citi sells Banamex, HSBC will be the only global bank operating in Mexico. The other international banks are regional.
And it remains to be seen who buys Banamex. HSBC recently raised its hand to bid for that institution.
But regardless of this, multinational companies see HSBC as their bank, precisely because it is global.
In addition, HSBC, like the Mexican banking system as a whole, is developing in a context of financial health and a high level of capitalization.
As for the concerns, there are the low level of growth, the uncertainty, the weak private investment and the Electricity Reform initiative. In this sector there are many stopped investments. Most of the investments that were to come were precisely in the energy sector.
Regarding the economic context, it is very likely that it will reduce its growth rate forecast to between 2.0 and 2.5% by the end of this year 2022, due to the low level of investment that is registered.
His perspective on the year 2022 is complex in the face of high inflation, the rise in interest rates from the Bank of Mexico, which will end up translating into higher rates offered by banks to their clients and weak economic growth.
However, there are sectors of the economy that are solid and strong, such as consumption, tourism, the airline industry, which, together with the sooner total reopening of the economy, due to the end of the sanitary confinement, will translate into better general economic performance. .
Other dynamic sectors are the maquiladora industry, and nearshoring by virtue of which production that was carried out in other parts of the world, in particular Asia, is being transferred to Mexico.
In addition, Mexico has very important trade agreements, in addition to the T-MEC and a large productive capacity of its industrial plant. That is the perspective of a global banker.
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Journalist
Rich and Powerful
He has worked continuously in newspapers, magazines, radio, television and the Internet, in the last 31 years he has specialized in business, finance and economics. He is one of the three hosts of the program Alebrijes, Águila o Sol, a program specialized in economic issues that is broadcast on Foro TV.