As is already evident, economic recovery is seriously compromised; the unequal exit from Covid, the persistent lack of rule of law, the acute obstruction of supply chains, with growing insecurity and atypical levels of inflation lead us to understand, but above all, to act in relation to the future of the economy. Contrary to what many believe, we have a government that understands economics; both the Secretary of the Treasury, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, and the Board of Governors of Banxico, are professionals in the field, even more relevant is listening to the president about the need to stop inflation by comparing it to the fight against poverty. Whether for reasons of economic ethics or political-electoral reasons, it must be recognized that the financial authorities are aware of the situation. However, the serious circumstances require, in addition to knowledge, expertise in the instrumentation of the very limited instruments available to an economy like the Mexican one, which, unfortunately, has considerable structural deficiencies and that no one has been able to change. On the one hand, we have wasted democratic progress as a basis for the construction of a robust fiscal policy, so we find ourselves with few who pay, interest on the public debt on the rise, and exorbitant government spending needs, in an insane dynamic for decades, in which each administration increases the rights, but the obligations that we must all fulfill without exception do not grow.
On the other side of the equation, we have a monetary policy that needs to be reaffirmed every day due to the many years of political authoritarianism that led to the manipulation of the monetary base to artificially grow the economy, resulting in memorable and very sad devaluations with flight of capitals. In its novel autonomy, Banxico has carried out its responsibilities with credibility, autonomy from fiscal policy but a certain dependence on the FED and excessive aversion to exchange rate adjustments. Added to the foregoing is the scant penetration of credit in the productive plant and the insufficient accreditation of the financial system in society. Clearly, the fiscal and monetary aspects continue to be limited and rocky compared to the evolution of foreign trade, which is halfway there, but nothing happens with the T-MEC, if it is the protagonist in what will be the most dynamic area of integration in the next 100 years. Domestic trade, however, represents the weakest area of Mexico’s economic structure; Our internal market continues to lack connectivity, without logistics, with little credit and government spending that does not really impact growth. In recent years the industrial sector is practically non-existent while the primary sector begins to seriously suffer the ravages of insecurity via organized crime. Thus, the conscience of the López Obrador government faces the structural deficiencies of the economy, the urgency of the US and Canada to integrate us even more towards the new international economic architecture and, above all, the bad Mexican habit of stirring up the political with the economic
Doctor of Economic Development and Law and Philosophy
AUCTORITAS
Professor at the Universidad Panamericana, Ibero and TEC. He has worked at the Bank of Mexico, the Ministry of Finance, the Presidency of the Republic and in Washington, DC. He is the author of books on economic history, financial regulation, monetary policy, economics, and ethics.