The CAQ certainly won an impressive victory, but the PQ finished in a very respectable second place.
When a by-election is the only one before the general election, it often imposes a perception that lasts until the ballot.
Who has the momentum? Who is down? Who has the wind in their sails? Who is skating in the slush?
From this point of view, the result is truly catastrophic for the PLQ. French-speaking Quebec has become hostile terrain for him.
In Marie-Victorin, there was not even one voter in ten to support it. More than ever, the PLQ is the creature of Anglophones and allophones.
For QS, it was a question of seeing whether it could pose with credibility as the main opposition party to the government. Not really.
For the Conservative Party, it was a question of seeing the strength outside the Quebec region of this wave illustrated by the polls. Nothing to write to his mother.
The CAQ faced voters for the first time since the start of the pandemic. She put the package there. All ministers were conscripted.
The last week had been extremely difficult for the government. Would there be a price to pay for the carnage in CHSLDs?
Voters therefore had the opportunity to send a message. We have seen: no big anger, just the opposite.
The PQ, he was downright given for dead by many. The last mass had been said.
However, the result of last night is not at all catastrophic, even if it is disappointing.
It is disappointing because the PQ, having to go to bat in a by-election, could not have hoped for more favorable circumstances.
Marie-Victorin was a PQ stronghold for a long time, and the PQ this time presented a candidate of quality and well known in the region.
Despite this defeat, the fact remains that the PQ trout are still hopping in the bottom of the boat and that it is up to the voters to put it back in the water.
Obviously, when a party is doing badly, we inevitably point the finger at the leader. It’s doubly unfair here.
On the one hand, because it is unfair to compare Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon to the giants who preceded him at a time when sovereignty seemed so close that the party attracted the brightest of those who espoused this cause.
On the other hand, because the current chief inherits a situation of which he is not the craftsman.
It is not the vehicle, but the proposed destination that poses a problem for many Quebecers and that must be brought back to the fore.
This election, it seems to me, does not change the underlying dynamic.
It would take an incredible combination of circumstances for the Legault government not to be re-elected this fall, even if the gaps between the formations will narrow.
This general certainty that he will be re-elected will also be a risk that he will have to manage. In politics, overconfidence is often your worst enemy.