Macron takes France to the brink of the precipice | The analysis of Andreu Claret


The President of France, Emmanuel Macron, He has not only lost the bet he had made, to revalidate the absolute majority of his own in the National Assembly. He has suffered two other defeats that will weigh on their ability to save the new legislature, no matter how much France is a presidential republic. On the one hand, has facilitated the resurgence of a left headed by a leftist like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for which no one gave a penny a year ago and which will now be the second force in Parliament. On the other, hhas created the conditions for the most extreme right led by Marine Le Pen to multiply its seats and be the third parliamentary group. Worst impossible. A wasteland difficult to manage.

The movement that Macron launched five years ago was based on his capacity to aspire votes of the two formations that had governed France in the last decades. To your right and to your left. This strategy, which was successful in 2017, and which still helped him win the last presidential elections, has failed. His two main political opponents have grown, left and right. The broad leftist coalition led by Mélenchon has obtained 142 seats, twice the number of the leftists and environmentalists in the previous Parliament. As for the extreme right of Le Pen, he has obtained 89 seats, which is multiplied by 11 those he had in the last legislature.

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To the lose 104 deputies Regarding the last elections and remaining at 246, the Macron formation has been very far from the absolute majority (289). With these results, will be forced to negotiate all laws in Parliament. Probably, one by one, the Italian way, if you don’t get a stable agreement, the German way. A difficult possibility, although not entirely impossible, in view of the new composition of the camera. In other circumstances – those of Spain without going any further – the obligation to negotiate the laws with others does not have to lead to ungovernability (although it almost always has a cost). The problem is that It is not certain that Macron knows how to conjugate the verbs to agree, give in, market, transact. His thing has been, and is, to exercise the presidency as if the French republic were a monarchy of the past. With absolute majorities.

Until he picks up the phone and calls the right-wing Republicans – whose 63 deputies are the only ones who could give him some stability – we will not know the course of this legislature. It will not be easy, because after a defeat that has hints of a punitive vote in the face of a petulant way of governing, it is not easy for anyone to want to commit to a force and a president who irritates both his left and his right. Two days before the elections, Macron still asked for a sufficient majority to avoid chaos. He did it at the foot of the plane that was to bring him closer to kyiv, revealing, once again, a conception of power marked by arrogance. Much will have to change for someone to play the rooms with him. A difficult country to govern, on the brink of a political precipice.


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