LILLEY: Who’s in and who’s out of Toronto’s mayoral race when the board changes last week

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Toronto’s mayoral race in 2022 changed in two significant ways last week.

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Joe Cressy announced that he would not run again for city council or mayor, thus breaking the mantle of the Great Left Hope that some had put on him, and John Tory seemed surprised by the outrage in some quarters for being involved in the dispute of the Rogers family.

Cressy, who for a long time thought she had her eyes on the mayor’s chair or other position in a higher office, announced that she was leaving politics. He cited his young family, the stress of being a counselor and board of health chair during COVID, and his own mental health challenges during the pandemic to explain why he walked away.

As for Tory, the two-term mayor has not said whether he will seek a third term. Some close to him are sure that he is ready for another race, but the reality is that he is weighing his desire to race against the health of his wife. Barb Hackett’s health has seen ups and downs for the past few years as she has dealt with Guillain-Barré syndrome. Tory has said that his health weighs heavily on him considering his long hours and the stress of work.

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It is something most of us can easily forget, that politicians are both people and elected officials. They put their pants on one leg at a time, they have family lives and pressures like the rest of us and, to paraphrase Shakespeare, if we poked them they would bleed.

With 51 weeks until the next municipal elections and six months until the mayoral race officially begins, there is a lot of ground to cover and many things that could change. The most important factor in determining the list of candidates will be Tory himself. If you apply, the list of candidates will be shorter. If you don’t, the field will be wide open.

So who is in and who is out?

Here is a list of possible candidates for the mayoral race, all predictions subject to change:

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Adam Vaughan – Trinity Spadina Councilor from 2006 to 2014, when he rose to the federal scene as a Liberal MP, Vaughan walked away from politics before the 2021 federal election. Despite his retirement, many encourage him to run.

Kristyn Wong-Tam – A city councilor since 2010, Wong-Tam’s name is mentioned more frequently now that Cressy has retired. She represents the Toronto Center and has brought affordable housing and renters’ rights to the fore in a neighborhood where multi-million dollar homes often adjoin low-income neighborhoods. She is one of the possible candidates to carry the flag of the left in the mayoral race.

Maike Layton – Like Wong-Tam, Layton was first elected to the council in 2010 and represents Rosedale University. He will be one of the people who will compete to be the leftist candidate next October. Once thought to have his eyes set on PND politics at the provincial or federal level (his father is the late Jack Layton), all of this changes with Cressy’s departure from politics.

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Michael Thompson – One of Tory’s deputy mayors and a Scarborough council member since 2003, Thompson is very much on the liberal side of the aisle, but takes a tough stance on crime. He has served on the Toronto Police Services Board and has been an advocate for a subway extension for Scarborough. If Tory runs, don’t expect to see Thompson come up with his name this time.

Ana Bailão – Another one of Tory’s deputy mayors, Bailão represents the Davenport area and sits firmly on the liberal side of the hall. Considered to the left of Thompson but not averse to business, she is another candidate who is only expected to run if Tory backs out. Bailão has put affordable housing at the forefront of his political career, although he is not afraid to work with the private sector to make improvements to the record.

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