Liberals have a slight edge heading into election day

Politics Insider for September 20, 2021: A final 338-seat screening in Canada; Singh’s vow to tax the rich; and final arguments

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Maclean’s survey analyst Philippe J. Fournier He stayed up late last night putting the latest public opinion polls from this election into his model, and he concludes that the Liberals, even if they’re not sure, are likely to win today.

So this is where we find ourselves with less than 24 hours to go on voting day. As of this writing, on Sunday night, it appears that the Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau are the favorites to win the most seats in Canada, although the gap between the two main parties remains narrow. Several important variables remain unknown, and while there appears to be a consensus on national voting intentions, regional figures, which are crucial for seat projections, differ from company to company.

Final numbers (and change from 2019): LPC 32 (-1), CPC 32 (-2), NDP 19 (+3), BQ 7 (-1), PPC 6 (+4), GPC 3 (- 4 ). Seat projection: LPC 146 (-11) CPC 127 (+6) BQ 32 (0) NDP 31 (+6) GPC 2 (-1). But there are many closed races, many unknowns, so readers should remember that this is an exercise in weighting the odds.

Canada’s federal model gives the LPC at least a plurality of seats in 68 percent of the simulations, compared to 31 percent for the Conservatives. We are far from a clear result here. In fact, we could use the analogy of a roll of the dice: one to three, the liberals win a minority; Four, the Liberals reach the majority; Five or six, and it is the Conservatives who win the most seats. Therefore, while one prefers to be the favorite for Election Day, two out of three chances of winning is far from a sure win for liberals. For comparison, according to some sports betting sites, the Las Vegas Golden Knights had a two out of three chance of beating the Montreal Canadiens in the Stanley Cup semifinals last June. And we know how that turned out.

That closes the vote for this election. Today it’s up to the voters.

Final arguments: Justin trudeau ended the election by campaigning against Jason kenney and Scott moe Sunday, the Balloon reports.

“The people of Alberta have a very important decision to make, whether they want to Erin O’Toole to continue working with Jason kenney about not ending this pandemic, or they want a liberal government that defends nearly 75 to 80 percent of Canadians, including the vast majority of Albertans, who have done the right thing and want to end this pandemic for good “.

O’Toole alluded to his military career when he called on supporters to succeed in the running game: “When you have a mission to accomplish, when you need to unite a team to accomplish that mission, you need a plan for the mission, and we have the plan in place. Canada’s recovery plan. “

Jagmeet SinghAn optimist in BC, he said he was “excited” and promised to fight. “We will fight for you. That’s what we do.”

The billionaires warned: At a press conference on Sunday, the Star reports, Jagmeet Singh He would not rule out supporting either a liberal or a conservative minority, but he did indicate what his main demand would be: taxing the rich.

“It should be very clear: the question of who pays the price in this pandemic. It shouldn’t be you or your families, it shouldn’t be working-class people, it shouldn’t be middle-class people. It should be the billionaires, ”Singh said. “So our number one priority is making sure billionaires pay their fair share, so we can invest in all the solutions we need to make sure people’s lives are better.”

Key issues: The Association for Canadian Studies has an interesting poll by Leger that concludes that the liberal effort to turn the election into a referendum on the pandemic was only partially successful: fewer voters (40%) viewed managing the pandemic as an issue that moved the votes at the end of the campaign. who did (48 percent) at first. Other key issues: childcare, environment, Afghanistan and weapons. CP has the history.

Will not go away: One of the key stories of this election, and one of the questions to be answered today, is how many votes does Maxime Bernier’s Popular Party get? Regardless of the vote count, Bernier has given an angry group of “pandemic libertarians” a megaphone. writes Jamie watt at Star.

These discontents have reached a critical mass that is more furious, louder, and less burdened by the limits of logic or decency than any political presence in our country since the mid-20th century. And just like Donald Trump’s supporters in the US, they won’t be leaving anytime soon.

Your correspondent also has a column on Bernier, who is apparently about to deliver a cold plate of revenge to the Conservatives who denied him the leadership of his party in 2017.

Less important: As we approach the conclusion of what the Prime Minister called the most important election since 1945, Maclean’s Jason markusoff takes us for a joyous walk through some of the least important elections in our history.

Good question: At Star, Althia Raj writes that Erin O’Toole concludes the election campaign with a large number of unanswered questions about guns, money for childcare in Quebec and how many of his candidates are not vaccinated.

Harming Kenney: A senior UCP member has called an emergency meeting to discuss an early leadership review of Jason kenney, the Calgary herald reports.

Make sense of everything: Get in Paul Wells and Shannon Proudfoot at 12:30 ET today for a Twitter space. They will host a special election day chat with the guests. Catherine McKenna and Jason Lietaer and Anne McGrath.

Where to receive your news: Follow the election results with our live election map results page at

And if you want a more relaxed way of viewing the results, we are repeating (by popular demand) our live election maps coloring feed. Plus, see our comprehensive coverage and analysis of all results from Paul Wells, Shannon Proudfoot, Marie-Danielle Smith, Jason Markusoff, Justin Lin, Fatima Syed, your correspondent and more!

– Stephen Maher

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