Legault, the loser of the federal leaders’ debates?

Twelve days before the federal election, François Legault wanted to ensure this week that his call for the nationalist vote allows the election of a minority conservative government. After hinting that it was his choice two weeks ago, he was less subtle on Thursday. But it was without knowing that the leaders’ debate in English would counteract his strategy just a few hours later, by giving the Bloc Québécois an unexpected boost. Yves-Francois Blanchet.

The wish of Francois Legault had little doubt on Thursday. “For the Quebec nation, it would be better,” he said, as to whether he hoped for the election of a minority government. “To recover more powers for Quebec, it seems easier with Mr. [Erin] O’Toole que M. [Justin] Trudeau, ”he admitted about Conservative and Liberal leaders. And when reporters pointed out to him that he had not mentioned the Bloc Quebecois once, “Mr. Blanchet cannot form the next government,” he ruled.

It is difficult to interpret this outing other than as an invitation for Quebec nationalists to vote conservative on September 20.

François Legault was, however, forced to admit on Friday that it is the Bloc leader who “defended us” on the stage of the leaders’ debate in English.

In the first minutes, the moderator Shachi Kurl asked Mr. Blanchet why, if he “denies that Quebec has problems linked to racism”, is the Bloc then defending the Law on the secularism of the State and the Bill 96 on the French language, which would be “discriminatory”. The Bloc leader has lost his temper. And at the end of the debate, he accused the team of having poured “a pot of insults in the face of Quebecers”.

“The moderator’s question was a real gift for Mr. Blanchet,” summarizes poll analyst Éric Grenier. “Because he can now talk about identity issues for the last week of the campaign. And, curiously, Mr. Blanchet could be the leader who will have benefited the most from the debate in English ”, explains the author. of the survey analysis site The Writ.

A gift for nationalists

For Laval University political scientist Eric Montigny, there is no doubt that Thursday was “a pivotal day” in the electoral campaign.

Which perhaps explains that Justin trudeau and Erin O’Toole, who had remained silent during the debate Thursday evening because not having the right to speak during the vigorous exchange, took care to ensure on Friday that in their eyes, “Quebecers are not racist”. The NDP leader Jagmeet Singh remained more circumspect, simply asserting that systemic racism exists in all provinces.

“In terms of momentum“Mr. Blanchet will be able to talk to voters about the issue he wanted to address since the beginning of the campaign and which had not taken off,” said Mr. Montigny, who saw the issue as an “attack.” to the Bloc leader.

“It is a beautiful illustration of what can be described as Quebec-bashing », Adds François Rocher, professor of political science at the University of Ottawa.

If François Legault refused this week to also call for the Bloc vote to counter the three centralizing federal parties that he denounces, the Anglophone debate has come to bypass it. “This will confirm, for many voters, the relevance of the Bloc Québécois in Ottawa,” said Mr. Rocher, who was also annoyed during the debate by the leader of the Green Party, Annamie Paul, and his offer to “educate” Mr. Blanchet on systemic racism.

Whose votes?

Experts disagree, however, on the potential effect of this debate on the electorate.

Political science professor Eric Montigny believes that the Anglophone debate could confirm the momentum of the Conservatives in English Canada. And the treatment reserved for Mr. Blanchet could also give the Bloc Québécois in Quebec. This could favor the election of the minority government hoped for by François Legault.

The big losers, according to Mr. Montigny, will have been the Liberals, who had managed to stabilize somewhat their decline in the polls since the unpopular call of the election.

However, poll analyst Éric Grenier is not convinced that the Bloc is the only winner in Quebec. Because Erin O’Toole still defended Quebec and promised not to participate in a challenge to the State Secularism Act. It is difficult to predict, therefore, whether a boost to the Bloc Québécois could cause the Conservative Party to lose a few hoped-for seats or, on the contrary, allow the division of the nationalist vote, and a few liberal victories in some regions.

The polls at the start of next week will clarify whether the debates on Wednesday and Thursday have changed voting intentions.

Éric Grenier notes that the figures can still move. The Liberal Party had gained momentum in the last week of the 2015 campaign, he recalls, and the orange wave of 2011 had consolidated in the final days of the campaign.

“Quebecers generally do not have a deep attachment to federal parties,” notes Mr. Grenier.

Voting intentions have barely changed in Quebec for a month. The Liberal Party is now garnering 33% support; the Bloc, 25%; the Conservative Party, 20%; and the NDP, 14%, according to the CBC survey aggregation site managed by Éric Grenier.

Nationally, the Conservatives receive 33.5% support; the Liberals, 31.6%; the NPD, 20%; the People’s Party of Canada from Maxime Bernier, 5.3%; and the Green Party, 3%. If the Conservatives remained in the lead, Éric Grenier believes that this could convince some voters who hesitate between the NDP and the Liberal Party to vote for the latter, in order to prevent the election of a minority Conservative government.

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