Kentucky Derby 2022: Saturday odds, race day betting and the frantic battle royal of the favorites

The exhilarating uncertainties that there isn’t a heavy favorite for this afternoon’s $3 million 2022 Kentucky Derby shine a light on the strength of the three-year-old Class of 22, as well as equine America, and that gives loyal Kentucky Derby players Derby many ways to cut the complex cake of your exotics. But there is still an exciting race to be run to set things right and, as talented as the young athletes are, exactly none of them have done anything like this before, not at this distance, not among this many competitors, not before this kind . of the crowd, and he certainly didn’t face this variety of talent. Usually on race day at Churchill the questions are cut back a bit. This May, the questions run and reach like honeysuckle. Let’s put it this way: When Mike Tirico opens NBC’s coverage today at 2:30 pm ET, everyone will be on their toes.

predictably, Zandonthe skinny morning line favourite, didn’t hold his own in track odds yesterday, going from 3-1 to 8-1just a shadow behind his rival messierthree stalls inside 7-1. Which meant, what again, exactly? Well, not much, except that Zandon was now wrong on the Hivemind trail with mo donegal, the alleged “locomotive” power station on the rail, also on 8-1. Epicenter still has a beast of a post position to overcome, sliding from 7-2 to 5-1which meant, in the occasionally twisted language of Churchill’s money, he actually clawed his way back up some sort of ladder to momentarily co-top-favorite status with… who else but the almost completely unknown actor Taibathe two-run Santa Anita phenom, trained by Bob-Baffert, also in 5-1.

At the moment, however, Taiba is the co-favorite. Run that for us again, please? No two-race horse has won the Derby since… Leonatus, in 1883.

What this big drop tells us is, firstly, that things won’t stay that way today, as post time continues its crazy march, and secondly, some very original handicaps are going to be required for this Derby.

Note: Until post time at 6:57 pm ET, we’ll be rigorously updating Churchill’s odds in this space. Before we call on the Bluegrass Wise Man to help us through the race day maze, here’s the rundown on the odds.

Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, (Morning Line), Live Odds

1. Mo Donegal, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., (10-1), 8-1

2. Happy Jack, Doug O’Neill, Rafael Bejarano, (30-1), 21-1

3. Epicenter, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, (7-2), 5-1

4. Summer is tomorrow, Bhupat Seemar, Mickael Barzalona, ​​(30-1), 42-1

5. Smile Happy, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie, (20-1), 14-1

6. Messier, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, (8-1), 7-1

7. Pride of the Crown, Koichi Shintani, Christophe Lemaire, (20-1), 17-1

8. Charge It Up, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, (20-1), 13-1

9. Tiz the Bomb, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., (30-1), 25-1

10. Zandon, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, (3-1), 8-1

11. Medina Pioneer, Todd Pletcher, Joe Bravo, (30-1), 47-1

12. Taiba, Tim Yakteen, Mike Smith, (12-1), 5-1

13. Simplification, Antonio Sano, Jose Ortiz, (20-1), 40-1

14. Barber Road, John Ortiz, Reylu Gutierrez, (30-1), 40-1

15. Blanco Abarrio, Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione, (10-1), 11-1

16. Cyber ​​Blade, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, (20-1), 14-1

17. Classic Road, Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux, (30-1), 67-1

18. Tawny Port, Brad Cox, Ricardo Santana Jr., (30-1), 67-1

19. Zozos, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, (20-1), 39-1

20. Ethereal Path, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, SCRATCH

21. Rich Strike, Eric Reed, Sonny Leon, (99-1), 99-1

(Source: Churchill Downs/May 7, 2022)

To help us make our way through this year’s jungle of odds, here’s the ever-sharp Bluegrass Wise Man™, who hit the track yesterday after the Oaks celebrations.

We kick off the week by talking about Taiba, whose inexperience makes him one of the most entertaining favorites. Let’s go to him again. You saw talk about money on Friday. What happened?

Bluegrass Wise Man™: Calm down, damn it. Long way to go until publication time. But to answer your question, it’s part what’s been going on in training, part Santa Anita and yes, part Baffert. But a really important part of this early turnaround is “Big Money” Mike (Smith). There is no more experienced jockey. Period. He is a member of the Hall of Fame for a reason. The reason is that he can take a claim and beat a million dollar colt. He now he is on a very good Baffert colt. Big Money Mike has me worried, okay? He was planning to “forget” Taiba in my exotics.

Recalibrate? Really?

Bluegrass Wise Man™: It’s possible to worry about Big Money Mike, or his horse, without changing every bet you make. Somehow I’m going to bet on Mo Donegal, Epicenter, Zandon, Crown Pride, Tawny Port and Cyberknife. I still kind of like Cyberknife, and I’ve been hearing good things about the Japanese horse Crown Pride, who I think NBC will do something with during their broadcast. Probably a trifecta, with those 6. Crown Pride was not raised in the paddock and kept in their Japanese regimen. Different type of training, it can work.

I see Epicenter being left with too much to do to even hit the dash, either because it gets crushed or because the traffic wastes so much energy that it has nothing left beyond the mile post.

Bluegrass Wise Man™: I see that Epicenter is close enough that you have no excuses if you get away clean. You could be right that they squash it, but I think we have the new 20 post gate, which is not as long as the old double gate. If it breaks clean and fast, it’ll be fine. At the rail, Mo Donegal might get hit, but he’ll go to the back.

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