Keith Gerein: Edmonton mayoral candidates cite risks of LRT expansion, but ignore costs of stagnation

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If you are a candidate for the municipal elections looking for an easy target to choose, these days are not much easier than the transit.

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And especially in Edmonton, whose system has not garnered much positive publicity in the past decade, from the Metro Line signaling problem and Valley Line delays to perceived safety concerns and expensive fares.

However, on top of all this, Edmonton Transit faces a much more confusing headache surrounding the long-term passenger economy.

In basic terms, COVID-19 has changed travel patterns. Passenger numbers have returned somewhat in the last year, but are still between 48 and 55 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

Some observers worry that he will never make a full recovery, due to an increased workforce at home, financial difficulties and continued reluctance to attend public events.

As such, there is a legitimate question about the cost-benefit risks of going ahead with billions of new LRT lines when the number of passengers required to operate them is uncertain at best.

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So yes, this is a fair topic to discuss with the voters. Unfortunately, some of the leading candidates have chosen to frame the issue in a false way, promoting the need to pause or dismiss the issue. $ 2.6 billion Valley Line West LRT.

Among the perpetrators here are would-be mayor Cheryll Watson and Mike Nickel, though Nickel’s opposition to the project dates back much further and has been intertwined with his rhetoric about how the city is waging a “war on the car.”

“There is no deal that cannot be undone. It’s just a question of how bad the bill will be, ”he said in a forum Thursday, responding to comments from Amarjeet Sohi, Kim Krushell and Michael Oshry that the Western LRT is now blocked.

Nickel may be right in a technical sense, but he’s a long way off in common sense.

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Regarding the project, contracts have already been signed, land has been acquired and utility lines have been relocated, while final engineering plans are nearing completion.

And speaking of that contract with project manager Marigold Infrastructure Partners, it contains a strict cancellation policy that would require Marigold to be compensated for all completed work, closing costs, employee layoffs, and subcontractor payments, in addition to compensation for expected loss of earnings.

No numbers are attached, but it is not a stretch to assume this could amount to $ 100 million or more.

The city is likely to be hit by everything, which could require a tax increase to pay. Although the federal and provincial governments have made significant funding commitments for the project, their money is not at risk.

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In fact, if the line were canceled, you could imagine the PCU government happily withdrawing its funding to help reduce the provincial deficit.

Those are the monetary costs, which must be added to the reputational costs of breaking a promise to West End residents and businesses who have been waiting decades for LRT, along with low-income workers who need cheap and efficient transportation to get there. to the West End. works.

That is not to say that the project is worry-free. Importantly, there are doubts about the ease with which the Far West Valley Line will connect to the Southeast Valley Line, as two different models are being built and operated.

The southeast line is being built under the umbrella of a public-private partnership, and the deal included the purchase of low-floor cars built by Bombardier (now Alstom).

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The opening of the west line will require the purchase of more cars, but these will come from a indeterminate different company, which means that there is the possibility of mishaps due to incompatible technology.

Similarly, operations and maintenance in the southeastern half of the line are included as part of P3, but that does not extend to the far west section.

And then there is the problem of the number of passengers.

To their credit, Sohi, Krushell and Oshry have communicated their support for West LRT and have pointed out the need to ensure high-density housing around the stations that will help create more users.

However, when it comes to the future development of the LRT, Krushell and Oshry have sounded somewhat cautious.

Sohi has been much more emphatic in continuing to build rail lines to all areas of the city, including Blatchford and Castle Downs. While I think you need to elaborate on how passenger numbers would increase (lower fares, densification, improved safety, regional partnerships, discouraging driving, etc.), Sohi’s approach clearly insists that improving passenger numbers depends on largely add to the transit network.

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I will leave it to you to decide whether caution or continued investment is the right thing to do at this point, but in your deliberations, I hope that you will consider not only construction costs, but also the consequences of stagnation.

Stopping the expansion of traffic on your roads is likely to mean more cars, more roads, more interchanges, more snowplows, more potholes, more parking spaces, more emissions, more expansion. All of which means more taxes.

(I’m not the first to make this point, but it’s interesting that none of the mayoral candidates have suggested scrapping the Yellowhead Trail project, which arguably offers few long-term benefits other than an east-west drive a little faster).

Yes, it is appropriate to carefully consider the timing, strategy, costs, and risks of how traffic grows in our cash-strapped city, as long as we don’t forget that doing nothing also comes at a cost.

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