Jim Polzin: Why the NCAA committee shouldn’t dwell on analytics when it evaluates Wisconsin basketball


INDIANAPOLIS — The University of Wisconsin men’s basketball team enters the postseason coming off what is by far the worst loss on its NCAA tournament profile.

The good news for the Badgers, who open Big Ten tournament play on Friday night against Michigan State in a quarterfinal at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, is that it appears the bracketology experts don’t believe a 74-73 loss to Nebraska in the regular-season finale last Sunday was all that damaging.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UW as a No. 2 seed, as does Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports. Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com has the Badgers as a No. 3 seed. Either of those spots — 2 or 3 — almost certainly would be good enough for Greg Gard’s team to spend the opening weekend of NCAA tournament play in Milwaukee.

Of course, the only opinions that matter are those on the selection committee and we’ll all find out what they think in a couple days.


How Greg Gard used the idea of ‘togetherness’ to lead Wisconsin to a share of the Big Ten regular-season title

UW is going to be a fascinating case study on Selection Sunday. It’s a team that can match its résumé to this point — if we’re talking strictly wins and losses, and where those results occurred — against almost any other team in the nation.

People are also reading…

But the analytics portion of UW’s profile might drag it down in the eyes of the committee. When that group gave a tease of how the bracket looked on Feb. 19, the Badgers showed up as a No. 4 seed and the 13th overall seed among the 16 teams listed.

The Johnny Davis-led Badgers have gone 4-1 since that point, beating Purdue for a second time to go along with quality wins over Michigan and at Rutgers. (And that ugly home loss to the Cornhuskers.)

There’s a lot to like about UW’s résumé and here are some highlights:

  • It’s 12-2 away from home, including 9-2 in true road games.
  • It has a combined 16-4 record in Quad 1 (8-3) and Quad 2 (8-1) games. That accounts for 16 of the Badgers’ 24 wins this season.

One key game on Friday not involving the Badgers that could help them out in a big way is a quarterfinal between Rutgers and Iowa. The Scarlet Knights are hovering just outside the Top 75 in the NET rankings, the sorting tool the NCAA uses to select and seed the 68-team field. Beating Iowa would almost certainly move Rutgers back in the Top 75, giving UW another Quad 1 win (on the road vs. the Scarlet Knights) and moving its home loss to Rutgers from Quad 3 to Quad 2.


Can a team with 3-point shooting as bad as Wisconsin's win it all? Here's what 20 years of data says

While your head is still spinning with numbers — sorry, that’s hard to avoid this time of year — let’s talk about those dreaded analytics.

UW is No. 30 in the KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin. There are four Big Ten teams above the Badgers, who you may remember shared the conference title with Illinois after both finished 15-5.

Gard’s team has been great in close games this season, going 15-2 in contests decided by six or fewer points, and that’s a sign of a good team. But it’s not a sign of a dominant one and that’s a big reason the Badgers sit where they do in the KenPom rankings. Not helping matters is that two of those close wins came against Nicholls State and Illinois State — by a combined seven points in December — and those teams are ranked No. 199 and 186 in KenPom.


Open Jim: Should Wisconsin basketball shut down Johnny Davis to protect his draft stock?

What does this all mean? Maybe not much. UW was an analytics darling last season, finishing in the KenPom Top 15, and yet our eyes told us a different story about that team. The committee agreed and handed the Badgers a No. 9 seed after they entered Selection Sunday with a 17-12 overall record and an 11-11 mark against Big Ten teams.

If I were to stand before the committee on Sunday and make a case for UW, I’d encourage them to use analytics sparingly. If two teams have similar profile, sure, compare their efficiency numbers and use that as a tiebreaker. But don’t ding a team that has produced a brilliant résumé and doesn’t have the efficiency numbers to match it.

The Badgers deserve to be no worse than a No. 3 seed on Sunday. And with a couple wins this weekend, including a third one over Purdue on Saturday if the favorites advance, UW has a strong case to be a No. 2.



Reference-madison.com

Leave a Comment